Datamining Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rates - Bad Luck Protection Values Revealed

Posted 2024/02/22 at 9:53 AM by Squishei

Disclaimers

This data is not labeled. There's no "Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rate" tag, but based on multiple factors, we assume that this is related to the Fyr'alath Bad Luck Protection (BLP). This could not be related, but we do think it is.

While we think we know what each set of data is for, we don't know how the graphs interact with each other (i.e. How exactly does the BLP from Lesser and Greater Embers combine?)

We don't know if there's an additional base drop percentage and what it is, if it exists.

Curve data is a set of points and we are assuming a linear interpolation, but we don't know for sure.

Data Gathering and Yesterday's HotfixBlizzard announcedFyr'alath the DreamrenderSorry if you did Fyrakk right on NA reset. This BLP buff seemed to only come at 5:45 PM PST.

The timing of the hotfix was shortly before the announcement.

10 out of 12 hotfixed plots were encrypted with the same encryption key that encrypted Fyr'alath the Dreamrender.

The remaining 2 hotfixed plots were added in Patch 10.1 and 1 of the plots seems to match community data on the Evoker legendary.

New Fyr'alath Legendary Drop ChanceLesser Ember of Fyr'alathGreater Ember of Fyr'alathTL;DR Drop Rate

The Drop Rate on LFR and Normal is low... very low.

On your 15th Heroic (or higher) Fyrakk kill after the Legendary was available (Week 3), you will guaranteed get Fyr'alath the Dreamrender.

On your 7th Mythic Fyrakk kill, you will guaranteed get Fyr'alath the Dreamrender.

It's unclear exactly how Lesser Embers interact with Greater Embers, but if you've been collecting they should be stacking up.

If you have killed Heroic Fyrakk every week since the Legendary was made available (Week 3), you should have a 100% drop chance on the week of March 5th, if you haven’t gotten the legendary by then.Fyrakk Kills - Greater Embers of Fyr'alathGreater Ember of Fyr'alathGreater Ember of Fyr'alath

# of Greater Embers
(Fyrakk Kills Since Week 3)

LFR

Normal

Heroic

Mythic

New

Old

New

Old

New

Old

New

Old

1.5%

1.5%

6.6%

~5.89%

~0.29%

~0.18%

2.25%

1.95%

8.2%

~6.78%

~0.17%

0.1%

~0.57%

~0.36%

2.4%

9.8%

~7.67%

~0.33%

0.2%

~0.86%

~0.55%

3.75%

2.85%

11.4%

~8.56%

~0.5%

0.3%

~1.14%

~0.73%

4.5%

3.3%

13%

~9.44%

~0.67%

0.4%

~1.43%

~0.91%

5.25%

3.75%

100%

~10.33%

~0.83%

0.5%

~1.71%

~1.09%

4.2%

~11.22%

0.6%

~1.27%

15%

4.65%

~12.11%

~1.44%

0.7%

~2.88%

~1.45%

18%

5.1%

13%

~1.88%

0.8%

3.75%

~1.64%

21%

5.55%

100%

~2.31%

0.9%

~4.62%

~1.82%

24%

2.75%

5.5%

27%

15%

~3.18%

~1.32%

~6.38%

~2.64%

30%

~15.54%

14 (March 5th)

~3.62%

~1.64%

7.25%

~3.29%

100%

~16.07%

~4.06%

~1.96%

~8.12%

~3.93%

~16.61%

4.5%

~2.29%

~4.57%

~17.14%

15%

10%

30%

20%

30%

Other Bosses - Lesser Embers of Fyr'alathLesser Ember of Fyr'alathLesser Ember of Fyr'alath

# of Lesser Embers

Bonus BLP?

New

Old

0.6%

0.3%

1.2%

0.6%

1.8%

0.9%

2.4%

1.2%

1.5%

3.6%

1.8%

4.2%

2.1%

4.8%

2.4%

5.4%

2.7%

12%

18%

24%

12%

30%

15%

100

60%

30%

/dump C_CurrencyInfo.GetCurrencyInfo(2784)Example

15 678 9 10

Comment by AlittanOk so I'll never see it in LFR. Thanks. I'll just use my time on other things in game then. No big dealComment by YcontrolGave up on it. It was something I was hugely looking forward to but it's completely irrelevant now.Comment by Nyte1103I have the axe on my warr..... and I really $%^&ing wish that you Blizzard.... NEVER ..... !@#$ING..... MAKE...... SOMETHING ..... LIKE ..... THIS ..... AGAIN..

I repeat...... never make something like this again. People on my raid team are considering quitting over this !@#$ system. Its literally unreal that you all think that in todays version on WoW that a " legendary " should even be exclusive. You all threw that excuse out of the window way back in Mists with the cloak. And every xpac that followed legendary items were basically a dead slot on our characters.

Where you all got the idea that this was even a good idea in the first place clearly shows how out of touch you have become with the game and the players.

Bring back Mists / WoD style legendary items OR LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE GAME.... I would RATHER grind for 3/4'ths of the xpac knowing we will all get a orange at the end instead of pulling the god damn lottery machine every week ever again.

For those who read this and for those who will consider this post an over exaggeration...... Ask any ret chasing 3k+ IO who dont have it how their experience is going. Ill do it for you.... they literally get told to &*!@ off since they dont have the weapon. Warriors are in the same boat. DPS dks... guess what? Same deal there.

Either you have it and get invited to anything... or dont have it and get excluded from high lvl content because you havent been lucky for over 3 months.

Actually pathetic that this axe was even designed this way. Again I have it and every week my core raider guildies DONT get it makes me feel like %^&* for having it on an alt because I got " Lucky " with a drop.Comment by DarkkoiWhat otheres said. Stoped doing lfr couse totaly pointless. Raid group not raiding hc anymore as everybody got everything long time ago .. its kinda $%^& design. If they know that this season and raid gona have this axe and they balance classes around it i dont see why coudnt they turn this whole thing around like old legendarys shadowmourne and otheres .. have a quest to get materials to reforge and get the final quest item from fyrak as 100% drop chance to forge it. Its not like everybody who runs lfr / normal gona waist 200-400k on mats what only matter if u whana min max or for a transmog. This thing ruined the main goal for raids "to get people togather and work for end goal to accomplish", this is more like demorilze and frustrate people who would acctualy work on progress to keep run and run and run stuff they dont need anymore and accomplish nothing.Comment by NaskaraPls give us DHs a leggi :)Comment by roboscorcherThey should stop dropping legendaries at the end of expansions. There's almost no time to enjoy them.Comment by ryuplaneswalkerOkay so I killed him every week since week 1 in Normal because I ain't got a guild and the idea of pugging the Heroic kill every week makes me want to gouge an eye out because the Fyrakk fight isn't exactly fun to deal with...and I have a less than 10% chance.

Cool, okay I was waiting till I get the Axe to mess with getting keystone Hero and doing 20 Keys for the portal cause it seemed more fun to actually have something to do with the axe. Now what I should do is go do M+ until I get myself a bunch of 4/4 Myth Track gear and get my Portals and my Keystone Hero achievement. However seeing that to get a real chance at the axe I gotta deal with pugging Heroic Fyrakk week after week, I would rather just not play at all and just go do other &*!@.

#$%^ing LAMO.Comment by TrappncheekzPost buffs, I cant get the math of this post to work from the TLDR example at the bottom:

"One of my friends (JP) has killed Heroic every week and has 25 Lesser Embers.
Assuming an independent roll for each difficulty and Lesser Embers are additive to the base chance, he would have around a 62% of getting the legendary this week."

If "JP" had killed HC every week with 25 Lessers, is that not 42% chance of it dropping this week?

WK 12 numbers =

12 HC kill this week = 24% chance in HC + 15% from the lesser embers = 42%.

Where does the 62% come from?Comment by PythagorasThank you for this data. Now ppl will be sure they are closer to get the weapon instead of throwing a dice every week.
It's curious how LFR has neegative chance.Comment by TheGoldenElmI want leggo acquisition like what we had in ICC and Firelands. You got the starting drop pretty easily but then the raid had to decide who worked on it first because you also needed parts from the raid and help doing some tasks inside the raid. There wasn't this BS RNG drop rate that apparently screws over normal raiders from ever getting it except if you're super lucky and messes with heroic and mythic raiders since they can't guarantee who gets it and when. Gotta love healing paladins or alts who get it over dps mains. And to have this happen in back to back seasons just aggravates the entire situation. Nothing about this feels fun, exciting, or rewarding.Comment by DMPancakeOkay so I killed him every week since week 1 in Normal because I ain't got a guild and the idea of pugging the Heroic kill every week makes me want to gouge an eye out because the Fyrakk fight isn't exactly fun to deal with...and I have a less than 10% chance.

Cool, okay I was waiting till I get the Axe to mess with getting keystone Hero and doing 20 Keys for the portal cause it seemed more fun to actually have something to do with the axe. Now what I should do is go do M+ until I get myself a bunch of 4/4 Myth Track gear and get my Portals and my Keystone Hero achievement. However seeing that to get a real chance at the axe I gotta deal with pugging Heroic Fyrakk week after week, I would rather just not play at all and just go do other &*!@.

#$%^ing LAMO.Comment by LoskThere are a few different ways to create value in a legendary.

RNG - Rarity because of a low drop chance.

Challenge - Rarity because not everyone can make the cut

Determination - Rarity because not everyone is willing to take the necessary steps

Dedication - Rarity because the process takes time and not everyone is able to commit to the process.

This axe is a combination of all of these for most people.
- Low drop chance
- Have to farm it to improve the drop chance
- Probably will need to farm for it for ~10 weeks.
- Will probably need to be completing the raid on heroic regularly which requires FOR MOST, fighting to get into groups that can actually kill the boss (I'm looking at you, crumby AOTC groups).

I don't like it. Not everyone has to, but I would much prefer a compelling storyline versus RNG and gold spending. It's definitely weighted further on the RNG spectrum than anything else, and majority of people hate that. RNG promotes toxic gaming behaviors and is generally disrespectful of player time, which goes a bit opposite to Blizzard's communications as of late.

We all like legendary weapons, but I don't think the current gearing system is really set up for weapons like this to have any longevity beyond waving a mog in someone's face in 20 years to belittle them, which I hear some people are really into.

I did my 5-6 heroic kills, 15-20 normals; I feel I have spent enough of my time. A reasonable person has better things to do.Comment by hazmaxedFrom the original post: "We don't know if there's an additional base drop percentage and what it is, if it exists."

Well, if anyone had the quest item drop from their VERY FIRST kill of Fyrakk, on ANY difficulty, then the answer is, yes, there is a base drop chance.

And if there IS a base drop chance, but you don't know what that chance is, then every other supposition in the OP is about as substantial as a fart in a hurricane.

Edit: Since the BLP items did not start dropping until Week 3, and we know that people did receive the quest item during weeks 1 and 2, that is proof there is a base drop chance.Comment by RozenhiemIt keeps dropping for EVERYONE in the group but no one actually gets it lolComment by DG2020no one who played in wrath, cata, MOP or WOD when legendaries were from a quest and not RNG drops you might see while the associated raid is current.Comment by 2lazy2jzam i the only that thinks it shoulda been rarer lol no questline attached full one .0001 or something drop rate buff it to god status and just let it be rare as #$%^Comment by DrowzeexFor those of you saying "I guess I'll never get it on LFR" or "it's not worth to do LFR"; that may be true - and I am probably extremely lucky in my case. My 450ilvl DK (at the time) got it from LFR on I believe Week 9 (don't quote me on that), while my main (Ret Paladin) has been farming heroic since about week 4. One thing to mention is I was PvPing at the beginning of the season and just recently got back to the PvE scene, so I was not farming LFR/N/H at all the beginning of the season.

It's totally possible to get in LFR, just have to be extremely lucky, I guess. Weird system.Comment by LongsoloGave up on it. It was something I was hugely looking forward to but it's completely irrelevant now.Comment by ProwakidxThank you for this data. Now ppl will be sure they are closer to get the weapon instead of throwing a dice every week.
It's curious how LFR has neegative chance.Comment by Prowakidxcould some 1 post the exact date the legendary was available to count the number of Greater embers we collected so far?

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