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Datamining Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rates - Bad Luck Protection Values Revealed
Geposted
22.02.2024 um 09:53
von
Squishei
Unexplained RNG and bad luck protection have been a source of frustration for players chasing legendary weapons in Dragonflight, though thanks to a surprise hotfix, we've datamined what appears to be the actual drop rate for Fyr'alath the Dreamrender!
Thanks to Dorovon for helping parse the data and generating graphs for the drop rates.
Disclaimers
Please read the following disclaimers.
This data is not labeled. There's no "Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rate" tag, but based on multiple factors, we assume that this is related to the Fyr'alath Bad Luck Protection (BLP). This could not be related, but we do think it is.
While we think we know what each set of data is for, we don't know how the graphs interact with each other (i.e. How exactly does the BLP from Lesser and Greater Embers combine?)
We don't know if there's an additional base drop percentage and what it is, if it exists.
Curve data is a set of points and we are assuming a linear interpolation, but we don't know for sure.
While some of this is likely still inaccurate due to some unknown connections, there are a couple of main takeaways that will be useful to know for players and players can look forward to seeing their legendary watch end soon (TM).
Data Gathering and Yesterday's Hotfix
At ~9:40 PST two nights ago.
Blizzard announced
that Bad Luck Protection on the Legendary was buffed. There were only two sets of hotfixes yesterday, one was a SpellScript which can't be datamined but the other changed some Curves. Curves are nothing special usually, but given that context, it was possible that these specific curves actually contained drop rate information for
Fyr'alath, der Traumreißer
.
Sorry if you did Fyrakk right on NA reset. This BLP buff seemed to only come at 5:45 PM PST.
These are the reasons that we believe these are related to BLP:
The timing of the hotfix was shortly before the announcement.
10 out of 12 hotfixed plots were encrypted with the same encryption key that encrypted
Fyr'alath, der Traumreißer
.
The
remaining 2 hotfixed plots
were added in Patch 10.1 and 1 of the plots seems to match community data on the Evoker legendary.
All of these combined seems to heavily indicate that we have found the graphs and data for the legendary Bad Luck Protection. On to the data.
New Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Chance
There's a lot of speculation here based on how this system, from interactions between
Geringe Glut von Fyr'alath
and
Große Glut von Fyr'alath
, to a base drop chance. While the numbers may not be exact, we hope that these numbers help the community frame their expectations for the rough area that the drop chance is in.
TL;DR Drop Rate
If these plots are related to the legendary and they work how we think they work, these are some of the most important conclusions:
The Drop Rate on LFR and Normal is low... very low.
On your 15th Heroic (or higher) Fyrakk kill after the Legendary was available (Week 3), you will guaranteed get
Fyr'alath, der Traumreißer
.
On your 7th Mythic Fyrakk kill, you will guaranteed get
Fyr'alath, der Traumreißer
.
It's unclear exactly how Lesser Embers interact with Greater Embers, but if you've been collecting they should be stacking up.
We are currently on Week 15 since Amirdrassil came out. RWF ended on Week 2 and the legendary unlocked on Week 3. This means that this week is a Fyrakk kill with up to 12 BLP stacks.
If you have killed Heroic Fyrakk every week since the Legendary was made available (Week 3), you should have a 100% drop chance on the week of March 5th, if you haven’t gotten the legendary by then.
Fyrakk Kills - Greater Embers of Fyr'alath
Here are the new plots for what we believe are the
Große Glut von Fyr'alath
. Note that we don't know if these plots signify the actual drop chance or an additional drop chance but I'm personally leaning towards the former. Note that this probably does not include the Lesser Embers of Fyr'alath. This is also assuming linear interpolation.
Please note that the first column is # of
Große Glut von Fyr'alath
stacks when Fyrakk dies.
This week’s kill is with 12 stacks of Greater Embers if you’ve killed every week so look at the 12 row for base drop percentages (without Lesser Ember).
# of Greater Embers
(Fyrakk Kills Since Week 3)
LFR
Normal
Heroic
Mythic
New
Old
New
Old
New
Old
New
Old
0
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
5%
1
0%
0%
0%
0%
1.5%
1.5%
6.6%
~5.89%
2
0%
0%
~0.29%
~0.18%
2.25%
1.95%
8.2%
~6.78%
3
~0.17%
0.1%
~0.57%
~0.36%
3%
2.4%
9.8%
~7.67%
4
~0.33%
0.2%
~0.86%
~0.55%
3.75%
2.85%
11.4%
~8.56%
5
~0.5%
0.3%
~1.14%
~0.73%
4.5%
3.3%
13%
~9.44%
6
~0.67%
0.4%
~1.43%
~0.91%
5.25%
3.75%
100%
~10.33%
7
~0.83%
0.5%
~1.71%
~1.09%
6%
4.2%
~11.22%
8
1%
0.6%
2%
~1.27%
15%
4.65%
~12.11%
9
~1.44%
0.7%
~2.88%
~1.45%
18%
5.1%
13%
10
~1.88%
0.8%
3.75%
~1.64%
21%
5.55%
100%
11
~2.31%
0.9%
~4.62%
~1.82%
24%
6%
12
2.75%
1%
5.5%
2%
27%
15%
13
~3.18%
~1.32%
~6.38%
~2.64%
30%
~15.54%
14 (March 5th)
~3.62%
~1.64%
7.25%
~3.29%
100%
~16.07%
15
~4.06%
~1.96%
~8.12%
~3.93%
~16.61%
16
4.5%
~2.29%
9
%
~4.57%
~17.14%
40
15%
10%
30%
20%
30%
*Weeks 17-39 are not shown for space.
Although in no way confirmed, based on the fact that Blizzard told players to do the highest difficulty, it is believed that defeating Fyrakk on any difficulty also independently rolls for and grants a Greater Ember for each of the lower difficulties as well. In other words, a Heroic Greater Ember grants a Normal and LFR Greater Ember as well.
Other Bosses - Lesser Embers of Fyr'alath
Of the hotfixed Curves, there was only one other plot that didn't match up with what we assume were the Fyrakk direct drop chances. We thus assume this last one to be the
Geringe Glut von Fyr'alath
drop bonus.
We do not know exactly how Lesser Embers of Fyr'alath exactly interact with the direct drop chance. The easiest solution seems to be its just a bonus additive percentage, but we don't know for sure.
Geringe Glut von Fyr'alath
only drop in Heroic and Mythic difficulties. It's been observed by the community that they drop more often on Mythic than Heroic. With only one Curve that was buffed, it's possible that all Lesser Embers are the same BLP, they just drop more on Mythic difficulty.
# of Lesser Embers
Bonus BLP?
New
Old
0
0
0
1
0.6%
0.3%
2
1.2%
0.6%
3
1.8%
0.9%
4
2.4%
1.2%
5
3%
1.5%
6
3.6%
1.8%
7
4.2%
2.1%
8
4.8%
2.4%
9
5.4%
2.7%
10
6%
3%
20
12%
6%
30
18%
9%
40
24%
12%
50
30%
15%
100
60%
30%
*missing numbers not shown for space
Post-buff, this means that each Lesser Ember of Fyr'alath appears to be worth 0.6%, regardless of what difficulty they came from. This means that players that have collected 25 should have a +15% bonus. You can check how many Lesser Embers you've collected with this script:
/dump C_CurrencyInfo.GetCurrencyInfo(2784)
Example
One of my friends (JP) has killed Heroic every week and has 25 Lesser Embers.
Assuming an independent roll for each difficulty and Lessert Embers are additive to the base chance, he would have around a 62% of getting the legendary this week.
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