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The Chance of Getting Tier from the Great Vault on 9.2 PTR - Observations and Remaining Questions
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Criado
03/2/2022 em 08:00
por
Squishei
Tier Sets have started to drop from the Great Vault on the 9.2 PTR and we've opened 200 Great Vaults to estimate the Drop Chance of tier pieces showing up in the Great Vault!
Disclaimers and Data Collection Method
As Blizzard did not reveal the exact drop chance of Tier in their
Tier Set FAQ
earlier today, we took to the PTR to estimate what the drop chance of Tier will be in Patch 9.2. However, Blizzard is the only one that knows the exact drop chance, and this is only an estimation.
Data was collected using a Brewmaster Monk using
exactly 1 box in the Mythic+ row
. If the drop chance is different between each form of content, or with additional boxes amongst the same row then this data will not support that.
In addition, as this was tested on the PTR, this may change going forwards.
Tier Sets Drop Chance in Great Vault Estimated
Opening the Great Vault 200 times on the 9.2 PTR, we received 12 pieces of Tier Gear which works out to be an estimated
6% Drop Rate
for this slot. Using the sample size and observed drop chance, it's likely that the drop rate is somewhere between 3% to 10%.
We received:
188 Non-Tier Pieces
2 Tier Helms (1 with Socket)
2 Tier Shoulders
3 Tier Chests (1 with Indestructible)
3 Tier Gloves
2 Tier Pants
Drop Chance Analysis and Hypothesis
From this data, we'll be proceeding with an estimated 6% drop chance from the Great Vault. Here are some thoughts based on the data:
Conclusion 1: Any Piece Possible
From the above loot that we received, it appears that the Great Vault can presumably drop Tier Pieces from any boss in Sepulcher of the First Ones, even bosses you haven't killed (was done on a character which did 0 raid testing). This means that the Great Vault could give you a Tier Chest or Tier Shoulders at the beginning of Mythic Week, items which are not possible to unlock until this week as these bosses aren't unlocked until then. This could immediately give you a 4-set if you have the 3 other pieces.
Conclusion 2: Tertiaries and Item Level
The other two things that we've confirmed are:
Tier pieces from the Great Vault can roll with Tertiaries and Sockets.
Tier pieces from the Great Vault will roll at the item level of the piece you would have gotten in that slot .
This was also confirmed in the
Tier FAQ Blue Post
.
Question 1: Independent Chance for Tier?
From this analysis, it's unclear whether or not a Tier piece has a flat chance to replaces the normal item in the Mythic+ row or is added to the overall loot pool.
There are 91 possible items for a Brewmaster Monk in the Mythic+ loot table for 9.2 which would make the expected drop chance to be 5.2%, close to the observed 6%. While it is possible that this means that Tier pieces are simply added to the pool, this would mean that the chance to roll a piece in the Raid (36 pieces of gear) or PvP rows (37 pieces of gear) would be much higher than the Mythic+ row due to total number of drops. If Tier loot is simply added to the pool, then Mythic+ rows will see around half as few pieces of Tier as the Raid and PvP rows in the Great Vault.
The data could also be interpreted as a flat (6%) chance to
replace
the item in that box with a Tier piece.
More testing is required, with a Raid Vault or a PvP Vault to determine if every slot has an equal independent chance to make Tier drops across all 3 rows, or if Tier is simply added to the loot pool.
Other Unknown Details
The unknown questions that we'll need to find out:
Does each row have the same chance of dropping tier?
Does the drop chance fluctuate based on how many boxes you complete in a week?
Can the Great Vault give you a piece of tier you already own?
Can the Great Vault give you the same tier piece multiple times in different boxes?
Estimated Chance of Getting Tier in Vaults
Based on the data, we see two possible implementations of tier in the Great Vault at the moment. Here are some charts to help analyze the data in a way that makes sense: the percentage chance of getting at least one tier piece based on the data above.
Flat % Chance
Let's assume a
static 6% Drop Rate
of a Tier piece from any slot on the Vault is true. Here's the % chance of getting at
least 1 Tier Piece (of any type)
:
# Vault Slots
Chance at Least 1 Tier Piece
1
6.0%
2
11.6%
3
17.0%
4
21.9%
5
26.6%
6
31.0%
7
35.2%
8
39.0%
9
42.7%
If this implementation turns out to be true, even with a full Vault, you have about a 42% chance of seeing at least 1 Tier piece in your Great Vault.
Added to the Pool Chance
Let's assume that
Tier is added to the possible drops in each row
. Here's the % chance of getting at
least 1 Tier Piece (of any type)
using the Brewmaster drops (91 Mythic+, 36 Raid, 37 PvP) using some common examples.
# Vault Slots
Chance at Least 1 Tier Piece
1 Raid
12.2%
2 Raid
23.2%
3 Raid
33.0%
1 Mythic+
5.2%
2 Mythic+
10.2%
3 Mythic+
15.0%
1 PvP
11.9%
2 PvP
22.6%
3 PvP
32.3%
All
61.5%
If this implementation turns out to be true, with a full Vault, you have about a 60% chance of seeing at least 1 Tier piece in your Great Vault.
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