The Chance of Getting Tier from the Great Vault on 9.2 PTR - Observations and Remaining Questions

Posted 2022/02/03 at 8:00 AM by Squishei

Disclaimers and Data Collection MethodTier Set FAQexactly 1 box in the Mythic+ rowTier Sets Drop Chance in Great Vault Estimated6% Drop Rate

188 Non-Tier Pieces

2 Tier Helms (1 with Socket)

2 Tier Shoulders

3 Tier Chests (1 with Indestructible)

3 Tier Gloves

2 Tier Pants

Drop Chance Analysis and HypothesisConclusion 1: Any Piece PossibleConclusion 2: Tertiaries and Item Level

Tier pieces from the Great Vault can roll with Tertiaries and Sockets.

Tier pieces from the Great Vault will roll at the item level of the piece you would have gotten in that slot .

Tier FAQ Blue PostQuestion 1: Independent Chance for Tier?replaceOther Unknown Details

Does each row have the same chance of dropping tier?

Does the drop chance fluctuate based on how many boxes you complete in a week?

Can the Great Vault give you a piece of tier you already own?

Can the Great Vault give you the same tier piece multiple times in different boxes?

Estimated Chance of Getting Tier in VaultsFlat % Chancestatic 6% Drop Rateleast 1 Tier Piece (of any type)

# Vault Slots

Chance at Least 1 Tier Piece

6.0%

11.6%

17.0%

21.9%

26.6%

31.0%

35.2%

39.0%

42.7%

Added to the Pool ChanceTier is added to the possible drops in each rowleast 1 Tier Piece (of any type)

# Vault Slots

Chance at Least 1 Tier Piece

1 Raid

12.2%

2 Raid

23.2%

3 Raid

33.0%

1 Mythic+

5.2%

2 Mythic+

10.2%

3 Mythic+

15.0%

1 PvP

11.9%

2 PvP

22.6%

3 PvP

32.3%

All

61.5%

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Comment by OridanIXHey Squishei, thanks for the good info. Maybe you can answer a question I've been wondering about. What appearance does tier gear from M+ have? Does it look the same as Normal raid, or is it possible to get the appearances from other difficulties, perhaps based on key level? Like, could I get a tier piece from M+ that looks like a Mythic raid piece?Comment by avatar1337What appearance does tier gear from M+ have?Comment by xacid480What appearance does tier gear from M+ have?Comment by HexellentIs vault/catalyst creation the only way to get Tier through pvp? :/Comment by Strungeng32% and 31% from pvp/raid but vs 15% from m+

amazing, my content always on the top disgusting rewardsComment by VeltrexEdit:
Original comment removed as I had some math mistakes myself, however, the math is still flawed for multiple reasons, as several other people have pointed out on several different media, better then I did. Maybe I am getting old and use math too little xDComment by NatakutdhGet it from content, get it from weekly chest, get it from the forge. I dont hate having all these chances for loot and then a way to make them. Don't forget that even if you don't get the tier in the chest, take the high piece and upgrade it...Comment by Nintolak
If all the slots have the same 6% chance, then the chance of getting a tier piece with 2 slots, is just 6+6 = 12%.
^^Proof by counterexample:End proofComment by NevcairielIf all the slots have the same 6% chance, then the chance of getting a tier piece with 2 slots, is just 6+6 = 12%.Comment by NeomagamCan we all appreciate that to get this data someone (squishei?) had to run 40 M0 dungeons in a 5 stack of BM monks that presumably used mutliboxing so they actually had to solo the dungeon? Even with all the skips in PF, that would still involve killing at least 2 bosses.

And then had to go and manually open 200 boxes? This was not a small amount of time/effort to get that quantity of data.

Thank you for your excellent work!Comment by RoberhWhat appearance does tier gear from M+ have?Comment by AutomaticFrogWhat appearance does tier gear from M+ have?Comment by DraconaxIs vault/catalyst creation the only way to get Tier through pvp? :/didn't get tier gearComment by FrozgulActually, the correct numbers for compound probabilities should take into account that the same slot cannot be awarded twice on the same row. So keeping the monk example, the second slot of M+ is picked up in 91-1 total items since first slot is already full. Slightly increasing the overall chances. (haven't done the maths, tho)Comment by EnbieVikingThe listed chances of at least one tier piece in the vault, are incorrect.
What is being shown are the chances of getting exactly one tier piece.

If all the slots have the same 6% chance, then the chance of getting a tier piece with 2 slots, is just 6+6 = 12%.
There should not be any diminishing returns, as getting 2 slots to provide a tier piece, should not be excluded from the concept of getting at least one piece. The chances currently, however, do exclude the options to get one piece, by having more then one piece available.

To stick with the 2 slot example, what is currently being calculated is the chance for slot 1 to drop a tier piece (6%) and then the added chance for the 2nd slot to drop a tier piece (also 6%) under the condition that the 1st slot did not drop a tier piece (94%), equaling in 6% + (6% * 94%) = 11.64%.
The correct numbers would be just 6% * amount of slots.

The same mistake is made with the 2nd table. Where the 1st and 2nd slots for content type, where each slot should have the exact same chance to drop a tier piece, but the 2nd has a chance added, under the condition that the 1st does not drop a piece. Once again, both slots dropping a piece is excluded from the total chance to get 1. But when you get 2, you also get at least one.

The correct numbers would be the % chance for slot 1, for the specific content type, multiplied by the amount of slots.
So for raiding: 12.19% for one slot. 24.44% for two slots and 36.59% for three slots.

Total chances would become:
Static 6% per slot: 54% for all slots.
Pooled per content: 87.92% for all slots.

Please be so kind to adjust the numbers ^^Comment by MikhailovWhat appearance does tier gear from M+ have?Comment by VeltrexCan we all appreciate that to get this data someone (squishei?) had to run 40 M0 dungeons...Comment by bkgbrettActually, the correct numbers for compound probabilities should take into account that the same slot cannot be awarded twice on the same row. So keeping the monk example, the second slot of M+ is picked up in 91-1 total items since first slot is already full. Slightly increasing the overall chances. (haven't done the maths, tho)Comment by wallrochaIf we actually get mythic appearances from doing other content I'm actually gonna farm alot of sets this patch.Comment by FrozgulOh? I didn't know you can have the same item on two slots of the same row. That sucks -_-. But it eases out the probabilities thing indeed :D

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