Longclaw의 댓글

So, does this turn into one of the Fortune Cards like This one?

I'd assume it's a pretty slim drop chance for that one, but do you think the odds of getting it outway the cost of the mats? I guess after a while they'd stabilize and their cost would be 5000 divided by the drop chance of the 5k one.

And now we have built-in gambling in WoW. Awesome.

Dahork의 댓글

Video of me using 60 of those: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Flfh6HnLfOQ

seems like it will be hard to get the 5k one ...

lajdin의 댓글

Yo Dawg we hurd u like addiction so we put an addicting game in your addicting game!

721722의 댓글

I used 132 Mysterious Fortune Cards and recieved 173 gold.

Only 2 "20 gold cards" and 8 "5 gold cards"

Nees의 댓글

Believe it or not, I'm selling these like hot cake. The hardest part is resisting the temptation of clicking them all myself ;)

roguedragon725의 댓글

Welcome to the World of Warcraft Lotto: please buy your tickets for 10g each (rough estimate); who knows, you might just win the jackpot!

The U.S. State governments make a killing off of state-run lotteries; I predict the same thing to happen with the WoW lotto run by the scribes. At least they can finally make money that isn't based on the fact that an expansion came out.

museerouge의 댓글

You mean gambling as in random chance, like random number generation when you /roll or Need/Greed on an item with a value (item level or sale price) attached to it?

Having a chance to gain something isn't gambling. At any moment you could receive a letter informing you that you have inherited a million dollars, that doesn't mean you are constantly gambling. Gambling involves the risk of loss, usually by staking money up-front on the mere chance of a payoff.

These cards aren't free; clicking "Need" or "Greed" is. If you had to pay the Party/Raid Leader money in order to /roll on items, then yes that would be gambling - but you don't so it's not.

So yes, Longclaw was correct when he said:

And now we have built-in gambling in WoW. Awesome.

Aldun의 댓글

Invested 1.2k. Made 18k. (No, I didnt use the cards)

712962의 댓글

Hi my name is Bellenova. This is my first time here at AA. I admit to being addicted to Mysterious Fortune Cards.

kyledgebhart의 댓글

This is Blizzard's 'bone' to scribes for nerfing inscription. These have been selling 15-20 an hour for me at 75-80g each. Made over 18k in one day. Of course, I was the first (and only) person in the market - no one else saw the potential goldmine. <pats self on back>

Never underestimate people's ability to believe that they can "beat the house" - as herb prices drop later in expansion, I can see these settling in at a little above the mats costs. These cards will also set a cap on the price of blackfallow ink I believe - which means herbing will be a profitable endeavor well into the expansion.

If you are a scribe, I'd advise crafting many, many of these, listing them well above what you 'thought' people would pay, and creating a macro which links Fortune Card in trade chat. Seeing that 5000g card drives people to the AH in droves.

btw: I made over 300 of these, I only used one. got 10s. It will probably be the only one I every try to use.

Fose의 댓글

"Never trust an honest goblin or a sober dwarf" Hahaha epic <3

502983의 댓글

Nobody has mentioned that these can be cooked. Fortune Cookie I suspect a lack of fortune cookies available.

740037의 댓글

Saw these in the AH and bought 10 for the hell of it. I freaking won! Now trying to resist buying more.

449371의 댓글

If these Cards were a raid boss, Blizzard would nerf them for being overtuned.

Mysterious Fortune Cards are Overpowered, and sell ridiculously.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmEv1HSCIF8

An easy 10K gold in a day by selling a dream to those with hope.

Zxvwt의 댓글

Since seeing some hard numbers is probably the best way to show that these aren't worth buying/using, here is what I have so far:

Out of 105 cards:

20g cards: 8 (8%)
5g cards: 8 (8%)
1g cards: 15 (14%)
0.50g cards: 21 (20%)
0.10g cards: 53 (50%)

230.8g total

Let's say I sold these for 10g a piece on the AH. I could have made 1050g (819.2g more than using them). It really seems that the only way to break even or make money off of using these cards is to get the 1000g or 5000g cards.

Don't waste your money on these.

The person who posted below me is correct; don't take my numbers as gospel. My sample size is too small to say that the percentages I gave are 100% accurate. However, I posted them both to show people what the likely result of using the cards is, and to offer my data up to anyone who wants to combine all of the data out there and come up with a better picture of the chances of getting a 1000g or 5000g card.

*edit* 1/20/10 - Originally I had intended to keep adding more data, but as the comments here grew, it seemed less and less important to update this post. For example, there are a bunch of other commenters with much larger sample sizes (although their data is similar to mine). I think I'll hold off on making more cards, so downrate me if you want.

Hmmster의 댓글

Spent over 5k gold on these, earned less than 500.
:(

Daverton의 댓글

Man, I would love to be on the servers with some of you guys. I made about 10 of these to level my inscription the other day and decided to try to sell one to see what happened. Listed one at 25g and was the lowest on the server every time I checked. Never sold. Did it again with the same result. Now I have one currently sitting at 15g and it's still not selling.

I might try the macro idea in Trade chat. It's definitely worth a shot. I don't expect to get rich off of these, but I can't even sell one for 15g? Ouch.

560074의 댓글

Haha, I am lucky! Just bought like 25 cards just to try... and when I had only 5 cards left, I have got 1x 5k gold and on 50g :D well, yeah, actually it is waste of gold...but if you are lucky, you can earn much more gold than you have spent... Good luck!

657861의 댓글

I spent 4k on these cards, got the 1k card and 100g worth of lesser cards -.-

redrumer의 댓글

No way to verify, but a satisfied customer claims he got a Darkmoon Card: Tsunami from one of my cards.

529010의 댓글

Currently I'm selling these for 40g each on my server, they are going for about 50g on AH so I'm just spamming trade, made about 11k over the last 2 days thanks to a macro that links the 5k card :D

DarthAvion의 댓글

Screw the gambling! I need them to cook fortune cookies!

743055의 댓글

The profitability of this item is more closely tied to the ink to make it than the mathematical probability for each of the different cards to drop. It takes 1 ink to make each card. Each ink takes 2 pigments. Using a rough drop rate of 2.5 pigments per 5 cataclysm herbs, that yields 5 cards per stack of herbs. To make profit off the card you would need to sell them for more than the cost of a stack of herbs/5. so if a stack of herbs goes for 80g you would have to sell your cards for more than 16g each.

Now if you have a lot of ink from leveling or from making relics and off-hand items then its not a bad idea to make these, but if you want to use your own herbs to make these keep in mind the amount of gold you lose by not selling the herbs.

Kaiyu의 댓글

I had a lot of fun selling these today, that was, until somebody whispered me and told me just how much they'd lost gambling on my cards. Be warned, the house may always win, but the house must also have a heart of stone!

FauxShizzle의 댓글

I bought 1 for 25 gold and made 1 gold. Yeah, i lost but i enjoyed the flavor text.

"The path of the faceroller is not the path of wisdom"

:D

723261의 댓글

100 cards

10s - 57
50s - 11
1g - 19
5g - 10
20g - 2
50g - 1

Total is 170g20s

That's either really bad luck or 1.7gold per card is what someone should expect. That is a very small sample though.

94099의 댓글

I for one would like to thank Blizzard for giving Scribes the Powerball franchise for Azeroth.

splunk의 댓글

I got the 5000g fortune card on my first card. I'm never buying one again.

Yes it's a thottbot comment but man I have to tell someone.

edit: i guess they're all called fortune card. now more specific.

Leronroll의 댓글

EDIT: information here now outdated as several comments related to this topic have been deleted.

reply to zacke10 -

sorry, but barbeque is right... or atleast, partially right. You did not factor in the time spent farming or the price of the ink which you could have sold (or the price of the pigment or the herb, whichever of the three sells the highest) when you calculated what your cost earn and profit was. barbeque may or may not be right regarding how much you would have actually spent (as he essentially guessed and you can't guess what the price of mats are on someone else's server with reasonable accuracy)

however, he was still correct in concept. it was wrong of you to leave out the price of ink, pigment, and herb when forming your conclusion.

EDIT: Replying to your comment.

zacke10 wrote: "You fail to see the purpose behind these statistics. It is not my intention to earn money in doing this. Just simply for statistic purposes."

zacke10 wrote (part of original post): Cost: 104 gold (Resilient Parchment price: 40 silver and assuming you farm Blackfallow Ink)
Earn: 1354.4 gold
Profit: 1250.4 gold

Average gold earned per card: 5.2 gold

Before you run about downrating every comment that disagrees with your own, consider the reasoning. You said that this was not to make gold, just for statistic value of the cards. Well and good, and yes, that information is useful and is a statistic that can be viewed in a different context than profits and material cost. Yes, this is true.

But, then you added in cost earn and profit into your post, after the statistics. This is why barbeque was being a critic. If you don't want to factor that part in or have people critique it, edit it out.

Oh, and I wouldn't go about downrating everyone who posts something that happens to disagree with whatever it is that you said, that just makes it look like you can't back up your points otherwise. Sooner or later you will be wrong about something, such is being human. If that's too stressful, go roll with the thottbot crowd.

746256의 댓글

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/6150/roflmaog.jpg
The only good thing about this item.... People dont get it... i dont know why they keep buying these...

heero854의 댓글

Just flipped 60 of these bad boys. I received:
10s x 38
50s x 9
1g x 5
5g x 6
20g x 2

I would not recommend this as a way to make money unless you farm all day and just happen to like right clicking.

Edit: I will be opening a lot more some time later, when I have a chance to farm, so that we get a bigger spectrum than just 60.

Sythen의 댓글

Farmed the herbs myself, flipped over 36 cards and got the 1000G card :) in all got 1074.10G from these 36. Probably could of made more from selling them unflipped, but I'm a bit of a gambler =D

479666의 댓글

I decided to figure out what the real numbers look like while I farmed Darkmoon Decks.

I made just over 360 cards, and profited 478 gold. (Yes that is already factoring the cost of Resilient Parchment)

This makes my observed average gain from each of these cards a whopping 1g ~32s.

Waste of time in my opinion, that is unless you're feeling gutsy and are bored out of your mind. ;P

Simonek의 댓글

Assuming that all cards have the same drop rates (1/59 as there are 59 cards ~ 1,7%) expected value of a single card is 107.8 gold.

This may be false assumption but it seems quite natural. The only reason 10 silver cards are most common is that there are 26 of them.

I'm quite surprised with the expected value, thought it would be much lower. Turns out that by selling them for 35g each (standard price on my realm), I'm actually losing potential money. Still, selling them on AH is guaranteed gold, I'm nearly doubling the amount invested in crafting them, when by using them I'm risking.

There is a video of guy using 100 of these cards and not getting any of epic ones, neither 1k nor 5k. With the earlier assumption chances of this happening are only 3.18%.

19080의 댓글

I almost feel bad selling these to people, because, in all reality they are a ripoff. So I just throw them in the house, and let it do it's business.

Rolock의 댓글

Did some testing today on 120 cards.

Of the 120:
70 were 10 silver
15 were 50 silver
15 were 1 gold
16 were 5 gold
3 were 20 gold

it cost 48 gold for all the parchments, the total amount gained from vendoring the cards was 169g,60s with a profit (and i use that word loosely) of 121g,60s

feel free to post any tests you may have done.

736579의 댓글

I reported a few days ago that I was able to link the 5000g card, but today, 12.28.2010 it stopped working in trade chat, /say, and /guild (and possibly others, but that is all I checked), though the script does pass me a link for it which I can click on. Don't know why it stopped working, but looks suspicious. Unfortunately I used it in a trade channel bark where I also listed a 10s card, which was rather embarrassing. Needless to say that bark produced 0 sales.

Disturbingly, I was also unable to link the 1000g card! ~~I haven't tried the other cards because all fortune card Wowhead links point to the 5000g card, but this doesn't bode well.~~ I tried a blue card and I was able to link that. I am going to put in a ticket/bug report just to see what they say. I'm sure it is ambiguously "working as intended", but I'd like to hear it from Blizz.

Alfamirc의 댓글

the only thing this was meant to be used for is to make Fortune Cookies from cooking.

272572의 댓글

Here's my data of using 1000 cards.

10s 50s 1g 5g 20g 50g 200g 1000g 5000g
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
28 9 8 7 2 0 0 0 0
27 15 6 4 2 0 0 0 0
37 8 4 5 0 0 0 0 0
28 8 13 6 0 0 0 0 0
28 15 9 3 0 0 0 0 0
31 12 9 2 1 0 0 0 0
33 10 10 2 0 0 0 0 0
28 10 13 3 1 1 0 0 0
40 10 3 3 0 0 0 0 0
30 9 9 7 0 0 1 0 0
33 10 7 5 2 0 0 0 0
28 8 15 6 0 0 0 0 0
27 11 11 3 5 0 0 0 0
33 9 9 6 0 0 0 0 0
29 10 13 6 0 0 0 0 0
34 9 10 4 0 0 1 0 0
31 13 8 4 2 0 0 0 0
19 11 10 6 2 0 0 0 0
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
544 187 167 82 17 1 2 0 0
54.4% 18.7% 16.7% 8.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% ?

54.4 93.5 167 410 340 50 400 0 0 1514.9 gold

Cheezypoofs25의 댓글

Your maths is theoretically incorrect as you did not use expected value, but rather personal trials.

Below is the calculation for expected value .

26/58 for 0.10 gold = 0.0448 gold
16/58 for 0.50 gold = 0.1379 gold
5/58 for 1.00 gold = 0.0862 gold
5/58 for 5.00 gold = 0.431 gold
1/58 for 20 gold = 0.345 gold
2/58 for 50 gold = 1.724 gold
1/58 for 200 gold = 3.448 gold
1/58 for 1000 gold = 17.241 gold
1/58 for 5000 gold = 86.207 gold

Add them all together and we get an E(x) = 109.6649 gold.

Assuming we somehow gain all cards for 0 gold, we will earn a profit of 109.6649.

I don't think I made any mistakes, but please feel free to criticise.

maths error

Your math is beyond flawed because you are assuming that the odds of getting each card are exactly the same, 1 in 58. To clarify, you're assuming there are only 58 cards in the deck and they each have a 1 in 58 chance of being drawn.

In reality, they odds of getting that 5000g card are probably, at the minimum, 1000:1 or more. In that case, you would have to multiply 5000g x 1/1000, instead of 1/58, and so on after you found the chances of getting each card.

Cheezypoofs25의 댓글

I'm calculating the expected value of these, based on some tries I've made and on the comments of this page...

the ev is between 7 and 11g at about 95% confidence. (the odds it is outside this range are 5%)

it means that if the price is below 7g you should USE/BUY them until they reach 7g.
if they are above 11, instead, you have to NOT USE/SELL them.

making something different is always a loss, for instance each time you buy a card at more than 11g you lose money (the higher the price, the much money you lose)

I'm sorry I can't be more accurate, if you make more tries please write here.

No offense, but I'm calling BS. I have a Bachelor's in Aerospace Engineering and a Master's in Statistics. Please show or explain how you came up with these numbers.

What type of distribution are you using/assuming? This (the Mysterious Fortune Card) clearly isn't standard normal distribution. You can't just apply standard normal distribution to something that isn't and get anything other than gibberish.

How big is your sample size?

What knowledge do you have of statistics?

Did you make any other assumptions?

Unless you've tried probably at least 10,000+ cards, there's absolutely no way you came up with a confidence interval this small. At this point in time, with such small sample sizes, there's no way this is close to accurate (referring you your math).

499453의 댓글

Blackjack has a 0.66% house advantage, roulette has a notoriously high 5.25%. Basically, when you gamble, you make your money back minus the house advantage.

These have a 98% house advantage.

Maelztrom의 댓글

Gambling: a tax on people who can't do math.

749987의 댓글

Frostmane, EU - Ally AH. Found some "cheap" cards on AH after seing the trade spam for them. Didn't actually know what can and what cant drop from those but I bought 5 of them @ 91 g/piece. Got nothing. After several hours noticed that there is a dude who put them for 22g/piece. Went and bought all 47 of them. Good thing is that I kept my inventory clear so I just started right clickin on those. Idk the exact order, but I got the 5k one. Got also several greens at 20g/piece. For some reason I wrote down the name of the one who was sellin them (im a gambler irl, wanted to make some kind of deal with him to get large quantities at lower price) and told him that I got the 5k one. I wont use the words he used, and to make long story short, he said that he got nothing after opening about 2k of those. I am on his ignore list now..

dabump86의 댓글

These things are selling for 47g per on the AH. I sell them for 40g per in /2.... i have made over 10k since i read this 2 days ago. Also thank you for the link on the 5k card. Sells like Hotcakes!

I have also gotten enough gold to buy the Alchemist Drake. If only I can find someone to craft it now. >.>

731950의 댓글

I was server first selling theese Cards at Kazzak , I sold them 75g ea, but after a while 2 other scribers also started to sell this card, the price was going down from 75g to 50g and now they are 15gea, Im just saying you should use theese cards instead of selling them if the price is less than 20g ea, You will make a profit if you buy many

Guran의 댓글

I have gathered data from reports as much I could and came up with this:

5000g: 1
1000g: 1
200g: 3
50g: 3
20g: 56
5g: 215
1g: 375
50s: 437
10s: 1315

Total Card flips reported: 2406
For a total of 9670 gold (exact)
Average income per card was 4g 1s 91c

Assumed chances:

5000g: 0,05%
1000g: 0,05%
200g: 0,10%
50g: 0,10%
20g: 2,50%
5g: 9,00%
1g: 16,00%
50s: 18,00%
10s: 54,20%

Average card value assumed: 4g 50s 42c

At this point, I am convinced the average at +10k card flips will certainly be between 4-5g
At 40s per Parchment, it is only profitable to keep these if Inks are worth less than 4g.
Consider that if you can not sell these cards anymore, creating DMF cards at 100 Ink(400g) + 30 Volatile Life(~200g) per card for an AH value of 600g or more is your next best option.

753724의 댓글

I just bought 7 of these from the AH.

First 6 were pretty mundane, the best one being worth 1g...
7th was for 1000g.

I always thought 7 was a lucky number, now I'm sure :P

755287의 댓글

Just bought 100x Mysterious Fortune Card's from the AH for 2150g, this is what i got.

47x 10s
17x 50s
19x 1g
11x 5g
2x 20g
3x 50g
1x 5000g

This is my first time buying theese cards, so I guess after reading what others have recived, I'm one lucky f...

DyeWitnesS의 댓글

I was the first to sell these Cards on Nagrand EU Horde side, was doing well the first week by selling them for 129g a piece, one time even a stack of 200+g a piece, but as said here before when others noticed this, they would start undercutting me, and now they sell for like 30-40g a piece. i think i approx made +50k gold with these cards, the Macro linked here before really helps btw :)

758130의 댓글

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oal99TCUZTo me flipping 200 cards.... See for yourself who wins it it's me or the house :D.

plah의 댓글

I can no longer link the 5K card in the trade chat (or any other chat) as of today (08/01/2011).

Edit: A few hours later, link is working again... Is Blizzard messing with something, or just a temporary bug?

ngen4ev의 댓글

just used 520 cards for 18k and got back around 500gold... so dont go into that :) /and lost 4 hours on buyin em cheaper and flipping em/

spazzanator의 댓글

Ive had 2 of the 5000g ones in 2 days. Just under 200 cards turned, farmed all the mats myself only had to buy the parchment.

528065의 댓글

I milled 20 stacks of herbs which gave me enough enough ashen pigment to make 98 cards (also got 25 Inferno Ink).
I made exactly 150g from 98 cards.
The cards could have sold for about 20g each which would have been about 2000 but they dont always sell and I might have had to repost.
I could have easily made 1500-2000 selling the herbs, maybe more certain herbs go for much more than others on my server.

Just some information for you, do with it what you will.

rabinho의 댓글

I tend to make these for myself, when I have a few leftover Inks that I cannot trade in for additional Inferno Inks. When I have milled my stash of herbs for the day and end up with maybe three Blackfallow Inks after trading everything for Infernos I will make the Fortune Cards and just flip them for the fun of it. So far, from maybe around 30 Cards nothing worth noting, but I love the gambling. I know that I'm operating at a loss, that I could have sold the Blackfallow Ink or the cards themselves, or kept the Inks for future Infernos, but I like luck based games.

It's fun to do it once in while!

kthirhis의 댓글

Blizzard stance era 2009: Don't gamble, gambling in game is not permitted, if we catch you gambling at player run Casinos we will ban you.

Blizzard stance era 2010: Buy Mysterious Fortune Cards and take your chance at gambling for the Fortune card!

743055의 댓글

I have been thinking about the concept of gold being added to the economy via these cards.

Gold enters the wow economy through trash and quest rewards. . . and now through fortune cards. I wonder if after months of cards being used will the economy see a noticeable rise in the amount of gold in the economy and thus inflation?

xxxColdxxx의 댓글

I don't see anything in the hot fix notes, but I have been sellign these since the second week of Cataclysm. I was yet to see a winner from my cards, but since the latest hotfix, I now have 2 of the 5k cards. I buy them off of my winners for 5.5k and yes I had 2 winners within 3 days apart. I am positive as they are both in my possession.

I have also notice more players linking the blue winning cards in trade as well after purchasing my cards from the AH.

I believe there was some sort of behind the scenes unmentioned hotfix to the odds of winning from these cards, but I have no statistical data to prove it, as I simply will not waste my cards for research as I am currently selling at 35g each and selling out consistently as the winners start to pile in.

Anyone else having any similar results on their server?

Cold

Kemaria의 댓글

I made about 40 of these today while leveing up inscription, and got several 5g as well as a 200g card. No 5k, but I didn't expect to see that, and was more than pleased with the 200g card.

And, c0h3n, I am indebted to you for that wonderful "inglyphinator" term. ;)

759155의 댓글

Good luck getting a 5000g card, after spending over 3k Gold in total on these cards, I made a whopping 165g back xD
Either way, I wouldn't recommend buying these unless you consider yourself lucky :p

770887의 댓글

The script to link the 5000g card worked for me yesterday giving a clickable purple link in /2, but today it just gave a white text version... What gives?

771387의 댓글

I won the 5k after creating 16 of them, after that I just started selling them on AH instead, much more reliable income source :P

Duskhaven의 댓글

Bought 50 cards tonight with the words 'what the heck' in mind...

Mainly I got crappy cards with a green and a blue. However, I DID loot BOTH the 1000g and the 5000g in the same stack of 50... A few minutes later another 5000g popped in trade from another 50stack from AH (and yeah, I saw that card too after some jibberjabber about linking). So my guess is that RNG has a mind of it's own... And that scribe got really ticked off tbh. Not me. I wanna know the odds for both cards in a span of 10-50 cards...

EU-Steamwheedle Cartel

424187의 댓글

Like all things take this in moderation.
Buy a ticket a day, (they go for 15g on my server), I can make that money back without trouble. A chance at 5000g is always nice. Odds are though obsession over this game will end up giving you no profit back, you will probably lose money.....like most other gambling games...ever.

602088의 댓글

I bought a card and got this which seemed lucky so I bought another...
And got this one.

It's a goblin scam I tell you :(

Renrek의 댓글

For anyone who is wondering the Chance to get 5k and everything. I went through 56 cards and only got 2 20g's. Rest were between 10s and 10g. Maybe my luck is just terrible.

516353의 댓글

Spent 1.6k on 107 cards. Opened them all up. Lost 1150g.

Highest I got was a 200g card. Once.

Never again is basically all I can say =)

gloran의 댓글

i make Mysterious Fortune Card all the time they sell for around 25-50g on my server and i never open em no point there money pits so i sell em i just made 90 of them put them in AH i bought the mats for 550g (the herbs) i have sold all the cards in AH for 25g each he is wat i did

parchment for 36g

herbs 550g

made 90 cards on top of 14 inferno ink

sold 90 cards for 25g each is 2250g

14 inferno ink sold 150g each 2100g

total 4350

so made a profit of about 3600g

cant beat that profit so if i did open em i would have lost more gold the what i had made trying to search for the 5k card its got such a small loot chance i pafer the profit i made total ive made on theas cards is well over the 5k mark ive made about 200 cards total so i think i made of good idk what the drop rate of the 5k card is but it cant be good so all who can make theas do and sell people on my server eat em up even people doing cooking love theas little money makers thx blizz for puting them in the game hopes this helps bye <("o"<)<("o")>(>"o")>

422414의 댓글

Lotteries are a tax on people who are bad at math

775392의 댓글

I am sorry for inscripters here, but guys...
DONT BUY THESE CARDS!

They will reduce your gold SO FAST

I bought about 20 of them, for round about the 30g each, resulting in 600g
When i sold all i earned 3.1g.

600g - 3.1g = 596.9g loss.

I lost almost the same amount of gold spent. Allthough, if something like Blue-Protodrake just dropped for you, i suggest buying one.

Also, just for reasonable knowing, there is a chance of 0.001% drop chance for the 5000g one.
Don't be a idiot like me and try to get it. You are going to ruin yourself.

780651의 댓글

i got one after my 18th card! :) they were 20g each , so not too bad

foureyedvulpine의 댓글

Word of Caution: If you intend on farming herbs to make the cards, be sure to do a little research beforehand.

As I type, these cards are going for 15g apiece on the AH in Eitrigg. However, all of the Cataclysm herbs that produce the necessary mats (Cinderbloom, Whiptail, etc.) are selling for more than 4g each.

From Wowhead's data, Mysterious Fortune Cards require 2 Ashen Pigment to create, which are commonly obtained by milling 5 of any of these herbs. Since milling yields 2-4 Ashen Pigment, you're practically guaranteed to have enough for one card with just 5 herbs.

Multiply 5 herbs by their unit AH price, and that's more than 20g per stack of 5, compared to 15g for a card, resulting in at least a 50% greater profit from selling the herbs.

Of course, it won't be like this everywhere, as I'm hearing of much higher prices for cards in other realms. For instance, if Cinderbloom is going for 4g each (4g x 5 = 20g) and cards are 40g each on AH, you be making twice as much money by making the cards and selling them.

I'm just saying that a little research goes a long way if you want to maximize your profit!

EDIT: Be sure to check the price of Blackfallow Ink as well, just in case.

Currently on Eitrigg:
Mysterious Fortune Card x 1: 15g
Blackfallow Ink x 1: 10g
Cinderbloom x 5: 20g total.

783897의 댓글

only reason i buy these cards is to cook fortune cookies. screw the lotto, gambling is for suckers.

fvisker의 댓글

My best guess on the percentages based on personally flipping over 8000 cards plus data I've seen from others:

10s = 53.5%
50s = 20.5%
1g = 16%
5g = 7.75%
20g = 1.75%
50g = .23%
200g = .2%
1000g = .05%
5000g = .02%

Of course, there are 58 different Fortune Cards, and maybe the percentage is derived from a fraction of 58:

1s = 31/58 = 53.4483%
50s = 12/58 = 20.6897%
1g = 9/58 = 15.5172%
5g = 4.5/58 = 7.7586%
20g = 1/58 = 1.7241%
50g = .25/58 = 0.4310%
200g = .2/58 = 0.3448%
1000g = .05/58 = 0.0690%
5000g = .01/58 = 0.0172%

Really it's anyone's guess. You would need many, many, many more flips to determine what the actual drop percentages are - roughly 32 million flips. (This is 95% confidence +/- 2 copper, with the assumption standard deviation won't change radically from my tests).

784022의 댓글

These are great for RP servers :D, I have a friend that RP sells them for 20g a pop, he's made a load of money.. just saying~

vacso76의 댓글

700 card = 1x 1000g , 2x 50g , 9x 20g

Azsalyn의 댓글

So if I'm making this myself... I just have to ask, WHY THE F*** AM I EVEN WRITING THE 10 SILVER CARDS AND NOT JUST MAKING THEM ALL WORTH 5000G? Man, my character is some kind of stupid...

721685의 댓글

I bought 200x Mysterious fortune card and result was:
103x 10s ; 33x 50s ; 39x 1g ; 21x 5g ; 3x 20g ; 1x 200g = 430,8g
I gived 10g each so i lost about 1570g on that. Its rly hard to get nice card drop seems like. I hope you be have more lucky than me.

110365의 댓글

I just made 60 Mysterious Fortune Cards and around 54 I got the epic one. My total earnings were 5192 gold. It was all milling herbs from Hyjal my alt farmed leveling from 80-83. It's all luck. If you have herbs to dump, this is a fun way to do it, but I wouldn't rely on it for income.

All I can say is, good luck!

733828의 댓글

For those of you playing the game and have say, Tukui, or an autosell addon...you're welcome.
add that to the proper section in the LUA file. If it's Tukui, merchant.lua, you'll see the list of whites that get auto sold...just copy this and add it. Tested working with Tukui.

= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card
= true, -- Fortune Card

Anathelia의 댓글

Word of Caution: If you intend on farming herbs to make the cards, be sure to do a little research beforehand.

As I type, these cards are going for 15g apiece on the AH in Eitrigg. However, all of the Cataclysm herbs that produce the necessary mats (Cinderbloom, Whiptail, etc.) are selling for more than 4g each.

From Wowhead's data, Mysterious Fortune Cards require 2 Ashen Pigment to create, which are commonly obtained by milling 5 of any of these herbs. Since milling yields 2-4 Ashen Pigment, you're practically guaranteed to have enough for one card with just 5 herbs.

Multiply 5 herbs by their unit AH price, and that's more than 20g per stack of 5, compared to 15g for a card, resulting in at least a 50% greater profit from selling the herbs.

Of course, it won't be like this everywhere, as I'm hearing of much higher prices for cards in other realms. For instance, if Cinderbloom is going for 4g each (4g x 5 = 20g) and cards are 40g each on AH, you be making twice as much money by making the cards and selling them.

I'm just saying that a little research goes a long way if you want to maximize your profit!

EDIT: Be sure to check the price of Blackfallow Ink as well, just in case.

Currently on Eitrigg:
Mysterious Fortune Card x 1: 15g
Blackfallow Ink x 1: 10g
Cinderbloom x 5: 20g total.

A better word of caution: Don't mill Cinderbloom. It's a low-end Cata herb; if you're going to buy and mill, ONLY use Whiptail or Twilight Jasmine.

There's also a problem with your math. Because a mill can produce 2-4 pigments, you have to calculate anything on the median of 3, whereas your math is based around producing only 2 per mill.

For instance, if a stack of 5 is 20g, then a full stack is 80g. If the median is 3 per mill, then you're getting 12 per stack, or enough for 6 inks - that means they need to sell for only 13.33g to break even. That's 6 inks for a single stack of herbs, not a big stretch on Whiptail or TJ.

And as Zorrah said, as long as you're breaking even on the fortune cards, you're profiting from the essentially free burning embers to make inferno inks. That's where the BIG money lies at, in the darkmoon cards.

31183의 댓글

As an inscriptor, if you want to open them look at it this way:
- If you farm your own herbs, it is only time spent. You spend 40 silver on a Resilient Parchment. As long as the card isn't a 10 silver one, you'll make profit (Ignoring that time = money).

You could argue that you're missing out on "potential" profit by not selling them on the AH, but that is hypothetical money as is the potential for a 5000 gold card. I've opened about 30 and I got one 1000g card. I've put about 50 on the AH and all have sold within 48 hours.

801141의 댓글

Definitely a viable money making scheme - Although it seems like most have caught on to the futility of their output for more than often little reward.

274203의 댓글

Just for the heck of it. I purchased 15 cards for 150 gold.
I mailed 2 off to friends so 0 copper for those..
I flipped 13,
got 1 200
1 50
3 5g
4 1g
2 50s
2 10s

270g20silver - 60 copper to mail off the unknowns
270g19s40c total net profit 120g19s40c and 2 happy guildies.

Yes I will keep flipping, I am even considering spending the 4k gold to make one of
my alts a card dealer.

BloodWren의 댓글

Got a bit bored in 2 one evening, decided to spend a little of my disposable income. Bought 6 cards, four 10s, a 1g and a 5k. /lucky

They're going for 23g on my server... and the market being monopolised by someone's bank alt. :P I linked it in trade and I got SO many whispers, some of them yelling FAKE and some of them even offering to buy the card for 5k.

... I shrugged and vendored it. :D

Then when I logged back in, I got an offer of 7k in a trade window, from the bank alt... a serious offer at that... anyone know why? :S

Fose의 댓글

Bought about 500 of these at once for 10g/card. Sadly i only got 3 (200g card), 4(50g card), and the rest where 10s-5g =/. Moral of this, DON"T GAMBLE! It's bad for your pockets :D

767683의 댓글

are the cards worth anything once flipped if it's a white item? i see a lot of them on the AH.

mud2kcom2info의 댓글

As of 3/30/11 ...I purchased 184 of these at 10g a pop on kalecgos realm , here is what I got;
1 rare quality for 200g .5%
2 rare quality for 50g 1%
2 rare quality for 20g 1%
8 common quality for 5g 4%
31 common quality for 1g 17.5%
42 common quality for 50s 23%
98 common quality for 10s 53%
Because I did not recieve anything higher than 200g I cannot account for the rates for ALL of the cards but I can come to a safe conclusion that these do not have a random drop/spawn rate.

btw, I didnt see any duplicate "fortunes" and my fav was " Epics are like children, none are so wonderful as your own. "

70906의 댓글

Purchased a total of 980 cinderblooms for 1g 20s each.

Milled them down and got 318 cards. Sold them 12g each.

Cost = 1178g

Sold = 3816g

Profit = 2638g

:)

EDIT: Forgot that I also earned 27 Burning Embers :p

Daisieheart의 댓글

so these are still making good money in cata? i always thought scribes made little to no money since on my server glyphs r only like 5g tops but thats my crappy server i dont play on anymore XD i just have a char there to help a friend who refuses to leave the server lol

817263의 댓글

I wish i cld have the %drops of the different cards

479779의 댓글

Someone on my server was buying the 1000 gold cards for 1100 gold and the 5000 gold cards for 5500 gold. I asked her why, and she said she was going to server transfer and use the cards to hit the gold limit, as you can only hold 50,000 gold as a level 81+ character when you're transferring characters.

Pouned의 댓글

Bought 100 of them. One was the 5k one.
Went from 19k to 24k for an investment of 800 gold (spent around 1k, income 4k)

828384의 댓글

Can you stack the 1 and 5k cards? I really need a checkbook for trading. pure style. oh and it is inflation proofed

Gocko의 댓글

These are pretty much worthless and a waste of money and is something you should only do when you are bored, but god they sell like candy to little kids for us Scribes so I ain't complaining!

Megamoose의 댓글

The expected value of playing this game at 15g a pop and assuming all 57 cards have an equal chance to drop (which they probably don't) is roughly a 76s75c return on the 15g spent. Thats a 14g23s25c per attempt loss.

Thats:

> .1(26/57)+.5(15/57)+1(5/57)+5(5/57)+20(1/57)+50(2/57)+200(1/57)+100(1/57)+5000(1/57)-15

The chance of getting the 5k card is probably way less than 1.75%.
Don't buy these cards.

EDIT: Pluses, oops. My last statistics class was back in high school.

Megamoose의 댓글

This is especially true considering the price to buy 57 cards is only 855 gold.
I am aware that buying 57 would not guarantee a success (the 5k card), but it would greatly increase the chance of a success.

837827의 댓글

OK so this is in regards to the drop rate of the fortune card.
1st I made 2 stacks of 200 mysterious fortune cards.
OK so first stack the fortune card worth 5000g dropped with
39 still left in the stack.
OK so Second stack it never dropped.
I suspect maybe it is a timed drop on total number of cards flipped
by everyone on server.

494528의 댓글

House always wins.

Yep that's true. If you spend lot of money every day in order to get a regular income out of gambling, you do it wrong, and you will lose money in the end.

Now lets do some maths...

Imagine that 200k tickets are sold at a price of 20 bucks each. You buy one. At the end, they take 1 random ticket, and this one wins the jackpot. 1 million.

Now if my mats are correct, the house made 3 million profit (minus the cost of ticket printing). (the house always wins)

Odd of winning the jackpot: 1 out of 200k. To have a 100% odd of winning, you had need spend 4 million bucks on ticket. Easy to say that the 20$ was not a good investment...

Chance that someone wins the jackpot ? 100%. It could have been you ? who knows...

When you buy a ticket, you don't only buy some kind of maths formula. You also buy the hope and the thrill of an hypotetical win.

I used to make those cards with my scribe, and sell it on the AH. a couple of hours ago, i noticed i had 400 of these cards sleeping on my bank.. and out of luck, the AH price dropped to 5g each. So, i could have sold them all, for a nice 2k gold. I decided to turn them instead.

5th card: 1k
12th card: 200g
13th card: 200g
18th card: 200g
All the others: Many under 5g, and 1 or 2 of 20g.

How much profit did i make by turning them instead of selling them ? Absolutely nothing ! But hell that was fun ! :)

ThomasJohan의 댓글

Epic are like children: None are as wonderful as your own.

That made my day! :D

854055의 댓글

Made 420 cards today, cost me about 500G and like 30 minutes to make them. Used them all and looted 1170G. 8 cards x200 and didnt count the others. On my server could have made about 3k selling them on AH.

715782의 댓글

Talking in the raid about the odds of flipping up the 5000G card in our Fortune Cookies...

Alt-tab out to look it up, alt-tab back to copy-paste my findings in raid chat...

<Paladin Healer> creates: Fortune Card.

:|

Kalquerak의 댓글

For anyone wondering, the average value of one of these cards is about 2g 50s.
(So if you're getting them for above that, you're probably losing money using them.)

Got my data via this research: http://wowfortunes.blogspot.com/2011/02/data-keeps-flowing-in.html

seahen의 댓글

Maybe not everyone who buys these cards buys them just to gamble with. They're also used to make 행운 과자, which can sometimes be just as economical as any other +90/+90 buff food depending on raw meat prices.

405680의 댓글

200 Cards of note

-1 200g
-1 50g
-7 20g
-11 5g
-33 1g

anzpanz의 댓글

Bought total of around 1200 cards:

1x 5000g
1x 1000g
3x 50g
loads of 20g

ended up with no profit nor loss :)

Ace0fSpaades의 댓글

I've come to figure out that on Whisperwind, People make this a game, they put up every single card they make for anywhere for 15 to 30 gold per card and tell people if they win the 1000 gold card to send it to them COD and they'll send them 2000 gold or if they win the 5000 gold card they will win send them 10000 gold. I've found this to be very disheartening since the second I hit 85 I had about 2500 gold and blew it all on those cards and maybe came out with 200g? Very big money maker if you know what you're doing with them. Watch out for the people that take yours off just to put them back on for a higher price, also watch out for the people that put 500 cards up that cost 10 gold per card..

876222의 댓글

I have made around 20000 of those cards so far after my calculations and all i can say is that in the end i got 10x5000,14x1000 cards. You make the math. I can also say that the report of the gold spent on herbs and the gold earned is not the same. I did spent around 30000g on herbs and i ended up with around 80000g. The gold i was spending on the herbs i was getting it back from the inferno inks. Selling the inks @ a value of 20-25g/ink. Maybe is just me been lucky but as far as i can see it this was a very lucrative business for me.

Doky92의 댓글

Hey.

Hmm my luck is coming when i dont wait for it... I farming the Vitreous Stone drake killed slabhide about 180 times since no mount... And yesterday i make 10 card and from the fifth i got the 5000 gold... it is awsome..

rabbitboi의 댓글

I knew this was a game for suckers, but it's a game nonetheless. Just for a lark, I went and bought a 100-stack of these things, with the intention of posting here a data set that might help others, as well as have a laugh over how much money I'd lost. To have the right mindset, before I started flipping them, I considered the 750 gold I spent on the cards already lost. Here's how much I managed to recover:

66 cards were the 10 silver variety
9 sold for 50 silver
18 were the 1 gold ones
6 cards sold for 10g
... and one 1000g card.

So I spent 750g, but managed to recover 1089.1, for a profit of 339.1 gold. That's assuming I vendor the card, instead of trying to sell it for more in Trade.

Overall it was still kinda fun, reading the flavor text of all the cards I got, but if I hadn't gotten lucky it would've been a tremendous waste of gold. I'd rather tremendously waste my gold on things like pets and mushroom chairs in the future though.

Redclouds의 댓글

Opened about 176 of these today and got one 5k one and another 280g in change.

Nytelyfe의 댓글

I have seen a few commnents making reference to it but nobody has come outright and said it yet. Each card has its own value after you flip it. some are one silver some are 20 gold. you can easily make your money back. i just spent 70 gold on a stack of 5 and made 80 gold and 1 silver. you just flip them and sell them back to the vendor for the price listed on the card. If nothing else some have neat sayings if your bored.

880213의 댓글

Lord I was born a gamblin' man...

885274의 댓글

Bought 600 cards to a total price of 3300g

what i got:

2x 5000g
2x 1000g
2x 200g
7x 50g
40x 20g

and the rest is just random silvers.

Put some luck into it, and u will profit! :)

894159의 댓글

i just bought 50 with a 375gold and got the 5k card

first time what a luck

pipboy650의 댓글

I bought herbs for 3000~ gold, milled them down.

-1047x Blackfallow inks
-140x Inferno inks

I made 1047 mysterious fortune cards and tried my luck, and it turned out like this.

-10 silver = 556x
-50 silver = 210x
-1 Gold = 181x
-5 Gold = 75x
-20 Gold = 21x
-50 Gold = 2x
-200 Gold = 0x
-1000 Gold = 1x
-5000 Gold = 0x

Gold earned from vendoring the cards = 2229g~
But when i sell thoose 140 inferno inks i got from milling herbs i guess i'll make the money i spent back at least :)

Just thought i'd post my own experiences to contribute. Maybe one day we could pinpoint what percentage that sweet 5000 gold card has!

897372의 댓글

I compliment everyone's efforts to understand probabilities. To understand this ... read on. A 1:10,000 chance does not mean you will get a 5000g card after 10,000 attempts. In fact, the 10,001 try will have the same odds as your first try. Good Luck! Please understand that every time you turn a card the odds will be the same.

EmberDione의 댓글

I make these to sell on my server. Whiptail is fairly inexpensive on weekends and I can get it for 20g a stack or so. I buy up all I can, mill it out, and make Darkmoon cards and these.

I collect the darkmoon cards into sets, and sell any extra cards I already have 1 of (at least until I get a full set, then start collecting again). I always make my money back on a few of the extras, and then make bank on the trinkets.

So the mysterious fortune cards are just additional cash. I list them between 11-15g depending on the other people listing them. I list them in stacks of 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200.

Some weeks, none of them sell. Other weeks ALL of them sell. It's weird. You will also probably notice people who buy a stack, then a few minutes later buy another stack, then a few minutes later buy another stack. It's like watching them flip and sell, then come back to buy more with the money they make flipping them, and you can tell they are losing because they progressively buy smaller and smaller stacks.

The high price cards (1k and 5k) sell for higher than their amounts because it makes it easy to transfer large sums of money over server transfers.

The only thing mysterious about these cards is how they mysteriously make me tons of money.

906278의 댓글

Warning Have addicting effect!

911752의 댓글

Just spent 700 gold on these stupid things and only made 89 gold. Just glad it wasn't real money :'

ryandb2의 댓글

Bought 54 stacks of herbs at about 21.5g per stack = 1161g
cost of parchment - 106.8g
Total Cost - 1265.4g

Parts after milling -
535 pigments
57 burning embers

Gained my 25 levels from 450 to 475 after about 38
Created 267 cards... results -> 531.5g.
I had one 200g, one 50g, four 20g's.

Overall about what I expected given my crappy luck, but it was fun. I got 25 levels and still have 57 embers to use.

920857의 댓글

anyone know the exact chance of getting the 5k one from the card?

Breotan의 댓글

The only way to make money off of these is to sell them on the AH. They'll probably go for more as a fortune cookie than a stack of cards. Whatever you do, don't buy them with the thought that you'll get a lot of money. Like with all gambling, only the house wins.

924402의 댓글

its not that bad i bought around 500-600 of this on ah costed me around 5k gold

i got 2x purple (5k)
and bunch of other crap

i wouldnt flip those but i dont have Inscription

QuickBASIC의 댓글

If you don't want to buy stacks to gamble with, just eat a lot of 행운 과자, because your bank toon can keep stacks of them and send them to your alts who need raid food, instead keeping stacks of 8 different food buff items for all your alts classes and specs.

Reckish의 댓글

Hey guys, just compiled the 10,000 data points from the large samples listed here, and the data from a few other sites like wowfortunes.com. As far as I can tell, this is the most comprehensive gathering out there. Hope it's useful, and please rate it up so people can see it!

.1g - 5136 count - 53% - EV .053g
.5g - 1853 count - 19% - EV .096g
1 g - 1553 count - 16% - EV .161g
5 g - 803 count - 08% - EV .417g
20g - 213 count - 02% - EV .443g
50g - 28 count - 0.3% - EV .146g
200g- 19 count - 0.2% - EV .395g
1Kg - 9 count - 0.1% - EV .936g
5Kg - 4 count - 0.04% - EV 2.08g

Total count: 9618
Expected Value: 4g 72s

So, to answer the million dollar question of "omfg, what's the drop rate of the 5,000g cards?" It looks like it's .05%, or one in 2,000. You should get one 1,000g card every 1,000 cards, and you'll get a 10s one half the time. The true expected value is about 5g. More importantly, if you just buy a hundred or so (not expecting to get a 1k or 5k, the expected value of the 10s-200g cards is only 1g 70s. Yah. It's that low.

Play the game, it's fun. Just know that if you buy a few cards on the AH for 12g each, you're paying approximately 10g each for the chance to play. But by all means, if you ever see a couple thousand up for less than 5g, get em! :D Enjoy and have fun gambling!

934120의 댓글

I just got the 5k one! Think I must have opened a couple of hundred cards since I discovered these little beauties.

And yes, I'll gladly accept all the downvotes for this, I like my ingame 5k better! :P

942505의 댓글

i am a herbalist and i run around waiting for dungeons to pop by gathering herbs.

i just sell all my burning embers as inks and use blackfallow to craft these...

still havent gotten a 5k one... turned over 500 cards

928019의 댓글

I'm not posting this to attempt to rub it in, or anything, but I must be the luckiest guy on earth. I milled enough herbs for a stack of 30 of these cards just for fun and got 2 of the 5000g cards out of that stack. Those were the first cards I had ever turned over outside of the ones I got when I didn't have feasts in raids. Main reason I am posting this is to reinforce the pure RNG of this stuff.

963059의 댓글

On my 6th created card, I got the 5000g one. I'm going to go make 239842938749 more. =)

723071의 댓글

Some posted in Trade selling Cards. I decided to buy some for the first time in probably over a year. I always thought they were a waste of time. Bought 10 for 75g, and flipped a 1000g card. Last time I ever buy them again. lol

550332의 댓글

I have commissioned an addon to be made to track the odds of the cards you get when eating Fortune Cookies and flipping Mysterious Fortune Cards. I have also set up a website to post the findings of the flips. Currently my sample size is very small, but I hope when the addon gets more popular it will grow to knowing the odds with near certainty.

The addon is called Fortune Cookie Chance and can be found on Curse here.

The blogsite with the records of the odds can be found here.

skinny92의 댓글

I bought 5000 cards and opened them all, here is the result of the rare cards:

2x 5000gold cards
3x 1000gold cards
9x 200gold cards
10x 50gold cards
+ a BUNCH of other 20 gold, 5 gold, 1 gold, 50 silver, 10 silver cards which i sold to vendor for 5781 gold.

here is a video of me doing it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwKcEqbE5Y0&feature=plcp&context=C4716463VDvjVQa1PpcFO_c8nee2aVR9CfK23_uvawXKM2IytX1mE=

907558의 댓글

ok check this out i had 95 g bought 10 cards got 5k what are the odds :D

Orentis의 댓글

Another word of caution: If you plan on purchasing this card to make the Fortune Cookies, keep in mind that you DO NOT get to keep the Mysterious Fortune Card AFTER you make the Fortune Cookie, unlike what a poster on the Fortune Cookie page suggests. It is used up, and you WILL have to purchase another Mysterious Fortune Cookie on the AH (which can be pricey), make it yourself (if you have Inscription), or hope for getting another one after you've consumed your Cookies (rarely happens).

If you were hoping for food that will only cost you 20 copper (the cost of flour) to make, this is NOT it.

Sarkahn의 댓글

So I saw that someone was posting MASS amounts of Whiptail for ~20G a stack on my server. I decided to take up Fortune Card sales and see how much I could make selling them at around 15G each.

I originally invested 600 gold into making cards. As more sold, I would buy up more Whiptail, and on and on and on. Within the first day I had 6000 gold, a few more days and I had 12000. I now have enough to buy a Vial of Sands. My vial money isn't ENTIRELY from fortune cards, but a large portion of it is.

Obviously your success will depend on the economy and how active your server is. I never even had to leave Stormwind thanks to the person who was posting Whiptail so cheap. I sold cards every day until eventually someone caught on and started undercutting me, thankfully at that point the Whiptail supply had died out and I was down to my last few cards.

As other have noted, these NEVER sell unless you're actively spamming in trade. My server is pretty dead so sales were very up and down. Sometimes I could go quite a while without selling a single card, other times they would literally sell faster than I could make them.

I have personally flipped exactly 27 fortune cards. My highest value card was 20G. I sold at LEAST 1000 cards and no one ever reported to me that they got a 5K card.

All I can say: DO NOT BUY THESE CARDS. Seriously. It's not worth it.

999274의 댓글

Got 5k in my first stack of 20 :D

MartinKjeldsen의 댓글

The first Mysterious Fortune Card i opened Was a 5k one :P

994802의 댓글

From 9 cards I got 4g30s I think the money is in selling the item

1017280의 댓글

i made 200 cards today, so i though it was a good idea to let my husband open them. He made 1268 gold from then winning one 1000g card and 4x20g cards. Lucky bastard! Highest value card i've got is 1 g one :(

1027932의 댓글

A lot of people are posting that the money is in selling these cards, and it might not be so smart to ever buy them, but simple math will tell you that if you can buy supplies to make them for 1.5g a piece, and their average long term value is about 2.5g, then you're practically making money without needing buyers in a saturated market.

I know I have, and I'm just hoping after the post-patch price gouging goes down, and when MoP comes out, we can still eventually get these herbs for 15-20g a stack, because with the lowered cost of parchments now, it's a never ending profit machine, even without having to rely on customers throwing away their gold.

ricster8의 댓글

Fortune Card
"You'll never know until you loot"

1056383의 댓글

686 cards, here are the proportions

10s 50s 1g 5g 20g 50g
50.87% 22.59% 17.20% 7.73% 1.60% 0.29%

made 815G
cost ?, gathered all the herbs

my opinion, I would have rather saved the time to make the cards and just sell the herbs.

Ghoolslayer의 댓글

Just finished levelling Inscription to 525 and had a lot of whiptail left over so I decided to make about 300 of these. Wow, made about 3500g in an hour or so, definitely great to farm in Uldum, not only have i made a lot of gold from these cards but volatile life sells for a few hundred gold, provided you have a good few. A very prosperous night, and i still have 100 cards left that I threw on the AH! A great source of gold for scribes!

P.S. the third card that I sold was a 5k gold card, gutted that I didn't flip it, but in the end I still made a fair bit of gold anyway (:

Strath의 댓글

행운 카드 - 15
행운 카드 - 11
행운 카드 - 10
행운 카드 - 1
행운 카드 - 8
행운 카드 - 5
행운 카드 - 12
행운 카드 - 4
행운 카드 - 6
행운 카드 - 6
행운 카드 - 7
행운 카드 - 9
행운 카드 - 11
행운 카드 - 7
행운 카드 - 11
행운 카드 - 8
행운 카드 - 5
행운 카드 - 9
행운 카드 - 7
행운 카드 - 9
행운 카드 - 8
행운 카드 - 6
행운 카드 - 9
행운 카드 - 11
행운 카드 - 5
행운 카드 - 10
행운 카드 - 13
행운 카드 - 7
행운 카드 - 13
행운 카드 - 9
행운 카드 - 10
행운 카드 - 8
행운 카드 - 4
행운 카드 - 6
행운 카드 - 5
행운 카드 - 8
행운 카드 - 5
행운 카드 - 2
행운 카드 - 5
행운 카드 - 11
행운 카드 - 1
행운 카드 - 7
행운 카드 - 5
행운 카드 - 4
행운 카드 - 6
행운 카드 - 3
행운 카드 - 13
행운 카드 - 8
행운 카드 - 13
행운 카드 - 16
행운 카드 - 7
행운 카드 - 12
행운 카드 - 6
행운 카드 - 9
행운 카드 - 3

Total Cards Used : 429
Money Gained : 884g 70s

1082446의 댓글

I know this information is a little bit late, but I did a test of 100 Fortunes, in smaller control groups, to show the chance of getting your money back for the people that aren't going to buy 1000 of these cards.

20 Mysterious Fortune
---------------------
11- 10 Silver
6- 50 Silver
1- 1 Gold
1- 5 Gold
1- 20 Gold
TOTAL: 30 gold 10 silver

2nd 20 Mysterious Fortune
-------------------------
13- 10 Silver
1- 50 Silver
6- 1 Gold
TOTAL: 7 Gold 80 Silver

3rd 20 Mysterious Fortune
-------------------------
8- 10 Silver
1- 50 Silver
7- 1 Gold
3- 5 Gold
1- 20 Gold
TOTAL: 43 Gold 10 Silver

4th 20 Mysterious Fortune
-------------------------
10- 10 Silver
4- 50 Silver
2- 1 Gold
3- 5 Gold
1- 20 Gold
TOTAL: 40 Gold

5th 20 Mysterious Fortune
-------------------------
13- 10 Silver
2- 50 Silver
3- 1 Gold
2- 5 Gold
TOTAL: 15 Gold 30 Silver

OVERALL TOTAL: 136 Gold 30 Silver
Investment: (Based of current prices) 205g(5) + 12s = 1025g 12s
205g = Current cost of Ink of Dreams in auction house, used at ink trader to get the Blackfallow ink (Cheaper than Blackfallow straight out)
(5) = The five stacks of Ink of Dream needed to make these
12s = The cost of 100 Light Parchment (Give or take a couple silver)
PROFIT MARGIN: 888g 82s *Loss*

Buyers Beware! (But seriously, keep buying them! You're paying for the fun and thrill, not the payout!)

P.S. Yes, people are still buying these, even now at patch 5.1
P.P.S. I am not saying that my numbers are what's going to happen, nor am I implying that I didn't get lucky/unlucky. Simply posting my results for 100 cards, for people to do what they want with it.

wowZhenek의 댓글

With herbs going for as low as 25gold/stack, u can make quite some profit on those. Average ammount of cards u get from stack is 5 so its 5g for 1 card. In order to get profit out of it you need to flip 1 5k card out of 1k flips. That seems really doable and if u get lucky - well, yeah, get rich! Only problem is that it takes ages to actally make all those cards (literally 30minutes of ink making).
Along with the cards u get starlight ink which can either be sold or used for DMF cards which still gonna sell in 5.2 due to the gear requirements for throne of thunder LFR + the trinkets being actually pretty decent and better than any LFR version of 5.1 raid
By saying all that, I flipped ~1200 cards and got 2 5k ones, 1 1k one and 1 200g one.

60852의 댓글

Using 1000 cards:

10s 50s 1g 5g 20g 50g 200g 1000g 5000g
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
525 207 156 90 21 0 0 1 0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
52.5% 20.7% 15.6% 9.0% 2.1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
52g5s 103g5s 156g 450g 420g 0g 0g 1000g 0g

Getting a total of: 2182g

Going to try with a larger sample later. Maybe 5000 cards.

60852의 댓글

Using 5000 cards:
.
10s 50s 1g 5g 20g 50g 200g 1000g 5000g
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2692 973 812 390 104 18 7 2 2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53.84% 19.46% 16.24% 7.8% 2.08% 0.36% 0.14% 0.04% 0.04%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
269g20s 486g50s 812g 1950g 2080g 900g 1400g 2000g 10000g

Getting a total of: 19897g70s

1109845의 댓글

When MoP released I made about 15k just milling Pandarian herbs and the special thing I got from milling I turned into the special ink and sold. The pigment however just stacked up in my bank (up to roughly 3,5k). Just recently I had some money problems because I started leveling enchanting and I decided to make some money. I used to make a lot of money with darkmoon cards so I thought what the hell. So after making 72 of them which ended up to 1k gold (800g profit) I made a bit more.

When I randomly clicked on the ink trader I noticed that I could trade Ink of Dreams for Blackfallow Ink. Suddenly I remember the insane amount of pigment just rotting in my bank. At this very moment I am making 2500 inks, for real ^^ and then this will be sold to a guy that buys everything I have for 6g each. So you can say I won't have money problems anymore ^^

Unfourtuantly there arent a lot of people that make Blackfallow Ink so you have to mill stuff to make the Ink or make Ink of Dreams to Blackfallow Ink. It still is a really good way of making money if you know how.

At my server each card sells for 10g on the AH, which gathers up to easily a lot of profit (8g each for me). However they might be hard to sell at AH in bulk. Although if you can it becomes a ton!

Hope all you people have fun making money out of this ^^

shades176의 댓글

Had 8 spare Ink Of Dreams, so I shrugged and bought 8 of these.
4x=10s
2x=1g
1x=5g
1x=5000g
Yeah, that just happened. Let the hate rollover this comment as you wish to murder me for my cursed good luck.

Alexandros94의 댓글

Never trust a troll. Or a rogue. Especially a troll rogue.

These are awesome!

Sturmbringe의 댓글

So, I read aaaalll the below dithyrambic comments, about how ppl allegedly made half a million gold selling these on the AH, how these cards sell for 30 g apiece etc, and then went to check my server's AH. My server is one of the EU's most populated. The cards sell for 7g apiece buyout, and the ink to make them sells for 14g apiece. It's been 3 days now and my cards won't sell on the AH. There's tons of them at around the above mentioned price that go unsold too.

Conclusion: If you have been having wet dreams to become a quasi millionaire with these after reading the comments here, forget it. Just forget it.

920140의 댓글

"The path of the faceroller is not the path to wisdom."

LOL.

SockConfetti의 댓글

To sum up most of these comments: if you are a scribe, your best chances at making money are to sell these. If you are an herbalist, you have an even greater advantage. I can farm all the herbs I need in about 2 hours tops to make 200 (using the Vir'naal River in Uldum), and it costs me nothing. All I have to pay for is the parchment paper. So far, I've made close to 8k gold selling these on my server. This is a money spring for scribes! Sell 'em!

1047247의 댓글

if you buy a ton of these you should go to a vendor and put the cards on a hotkey then just spam the hotkey and sell the cards that drop in your inventory

1143844의 댓글

Bought 900 for 3500g.. Turned double profit since I got 1x5000g, 2x200g, 1x50g, 20x20g and the other small amounts. Was worth it for me. Must be my lucky day!

Wolfshielder의 댓글

Just finished an order of 10 000 cards which took just about two days with the help of Two farmers and the Action house and earned 120k Gold from the buyer.

twosheds76의 댓글

So these have become very popular on my server in recent weeks. There's a guy selling stacks of 10 for 90G and he's constantly running out. So I wanted to see what all the fuss was about and I researched it a bit and then I decided to conduct a little experiment.

I made one stack of 200 cards myself. Farming Pandarian herbs for about a half hour and using my spirits of harmony to purchase the rest.

I got on my alchemist and made a Potion of Luck

I sent the potion and the cards to my mage who happens to be my luckiest toon in regards to gear and mount drops.

I hopped on my mage and headed over to Jade Forest and sought out the wishing well coordinates 39,7

It was there I popped my potion and picked up the lucky coin on the side of the well (for the luck buff) and opened all 200 cards and here are the results:

10 silver: 113
50 silver: 37
1 gold: 28
5 gold: 19
20 gold: 2
200 gold: 1

Total gold earned: 392g 80s

Did all that luck pay off?

Judge for yourself.

1435435의 댓글

The first time I used these cards, back in Wrath of the Lich King, I must have used between 200 and 300 cards. I got 2-3 1000 and a few 200 and 500. That made me think that it was a realiable way to earn money. Fast forwarding to today, after a long break from WoW, I character transfer to another server, with me carrying 1500 cards, as there is a gold limit, I thought of it as an investment.
After my first 100 cards, I get 1000. After 800 cards.... still just that 1000 (and 5 20g). I think I should just sell em on AH - like everybody else.

1047247의 댓글

everything is downvoted to the ground... what happened? the rng didnt work out for you after you bought 3000 of these?

Pitbrew의 댓글

Alright so here is my data using 3000 Mysterious Fortune cards

10s ---------------- 1626
50s ---------------- 584
1g ------------------ 450
5g ------------------ 258
20g ---------------- 75
50g ---------------- 1
200g ---------------1
500g -------------- 0
1000g ------------- 5
5000g ------------- 0

Total gold: 8944.6
Average gold per card: 2.98

Will update with another 2000 flips soon so it will be a clean 5000 to give a more accurate measure.
Hopefully this helps people :D. Sorry the post is a bit sloppy, not sure how to add decent spacing between without dashes or something as multiple spaces are seemingly ignored, any help with that would be nice. Thanks guys.

Eliran의 댓글

Most accurate information you will ever get about those Cards by a Mega Seller.

But first here is some background ...

Who are you?
I am Eliran, a Fortune Card seller from Argent Dawn EU.
How many cards have you sold?
Over 100000 Cards in the last few Years since Cataclysm.
How can we know you are not random guy?
Well pretty much you don't, all I can say is that my Reputation at Argent Dawn related to those cards is full of fans of my cards or Haters that want to kill me because I spam trade ... if you happen to be in my server, you can check the AH for my cards which are almost always up, my spam on trade whenever I am online in Major City and of course, inspect my statistics and Gold made from Auction of over 4 Million! :)

In my advertise I always buy the 5000 Gold Cards for 6000 Gold, both for collecting and also to promote my selling, I still get a very nice profit and yeah, "WoW Gold Bars" beyond The Gold Cap, so far to my Experience, there is a very accurate average of 1 5000g Card per 1000 Cards sold, there is no mistake and there is always a winner! It is Not A Myth!

In the rare cases of no 5000g card after 1000 cards, there is always a duplicate in the following batch of cards of 2 winners from 1000 cards, most I've seen been 3 winners in a single batch of 1000 cards.

Many people will disagree and flame, I do realize that, however I can safely say that if you decide to spend the right amount of money for the sake of research, I am sure any seller in your server will be more than happy to sell you 1000 Cards for around 12k Gold, I promise you, you will get at least one of those most likely even though you *WILL* lose Gold.

If you don't want those cards just for the trophy and showoff to friends/Guild Bank, odds are far against the buyers, that said, only luck can tell what will be the outcome.

Some people actually are just that lucky and win them and even make profit while some other don't,

Worth saying that in my whole Fortune selling life, I've never seen even 1 winner who bought less than 100 Cards and won, however that does not mean it is impossible ...

Hope you liked my shared information and remember ...

Who knows what the next flipping card will be? Maybe a Winning 5000 Gold Card or A Crappy 1 Gold Card?:) Only Luck can tell ...

sudeki1337의 댓글

It seems like that the droprate of 행운 카드 got increased by a lot!
I got 3 행운 카드 out of 15 수수께끼의 행운 카드 Would buy them now before the prices go up :o

tiera100의 댓글

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9XMHGZp85U opened up 2400!

Evilpancho의 댓글

so im not gonna go into detail here, but i opened 16093 cards, total gold value was 38894.
i spent 3g per, that doesnt really matter. though
2 cards for 5000g, 5 cards for 1000g didnt keep track of anything less than that.
it took me something like 3-4 hours, i lost track
basically my value per card was 2.4g per.
would not recommend unless you could get them cheaper than 2 gold. also, easier to get gold other ways so i still claim that these are !@#$.
0/10 would not buy again.

Nightsting의 댓글

For anyone wondering. These still sell! Made around 100k in 1 week casually

itsnotemy의 댓글

Once Shadowlands came out, the method of making these has changed a bit. Unfortunately Ink Traders now require Umbral Ink instead of Roseate Pigments. Sad times being that this was one of the easiest ways to make MFC and most affordable through Mass Milling Yseralline Seeds (which were EXTREMELY cheap).

The good news is that the value in MFC has gone up quite a bit. Best way to make these cards now is just milling Cata herbs straight up, either by herbing them yourself, or buying the cheapest one which depends on your server...

As before, making these and selling them can be a risk. Sometimes you may sell a bunch in a short amount of time, but it's also possible to go weeks without selling a single one.

Personally I will make these and sell back what I initially spent to make them (assuming I don't farm my own herbs) and then for fun open up the rest. This usually works out best, since the gold return on opening them straight up are pretty good.

Of course this is purely your decision on which you would like to do, I just wanted to chime in and give those a heads up that making them is quite different now and give input on what I usually do now. Good luck opening them!