Patch 9.2 Economy Thoughts - Wowhead Economy Weekly Wrap-Up 214

Live Pubblicato 13/02/2022 alle 13:00 da SamadanPlaysWoW

SamadanOn Your Marks, Get Set, Craft!9.2 will launch February 22nd 2022!!

Legendary BIS locations are shifting with the meta, expect changes in these markets, but overall cover as many as you can.

New Crafter's Mark of the First Ones and Crafter's Mark IV will be available at Honored with The Enlightened.This may be as early as Week 1 or 2.

Rank 7 Base Legendaries are unlikely to be craftable with the Tome of the Eternal until Chapter 5 - Crown of Wills which unlocks in Week 3 (unless there are further changes since the PTR).

Materials from covenant zones will still be in demand, possibly with less people gathering them as they are not in the new zone.

Potions, Enchants & Missives demand will spike with new activity & gear.

Fresh new activity and things still not fully tested means interesting markets may still emerge, so keep an eye out.

u/OldGrommwhich slots are going to be in most demand

As of today, all the class writers on wowhead have posted their recommendations for a double legendary setup. I’ve created an updated version of my legendary slot recommendation spreadsheet for those of you who are curious how things have changed compared to last time.

(If you haven't seen it yet, see my old post for context since this is a continuation of that.)

Before I start, I want to stress that these are just statistics. Other factors such as popularity of each spec (the statistics assume everything is equally high in demand) or popularity of each endgame activity (raid, mythic+, PvP) can all affect the popularity of each slot. Make your own educated guess at the end of the day. Anyway, let’s get started:

Firstly, a lot of power recommendations from 9.1 are still valid in 9.2. In a few cases, the main recommended power was replaced by either a completely new one, or an alternative power was elevated to main status. Even so, a lot of the alternatives from the 9.1 spreadsheet are gone, with Druid, Hunter, Mage, Paladin and Warlock in particular losing anywhere between 3 to 7 recommended powers. (The other classes range from 1-3).

There are some new powers as well – Death Knight, Demon Hunter, Mage and Warrior see no changes in their powers, while Druid, Paladin and Shaman in particular are seeing more than one more option (the others only have one or two new power recommendations).

Secondly, here is an update on all recommendations that conflict with acquiring the 4-set tier set bonus. The list is mostly the same as last time, except one alternative Warlock power was removed and one main Monk power was added.

Arcane Harmony (Arcane Mage)
Freezing Winds (Frost Mage)
Tear of Morning (Mistweaver Monk)
Shadowflame Prism (Shadow Priest)
Echoes of Great Sundering (Elemental Shaman)
Primal Tide Core (Restoration Shaman)
Malefic Wrath (Affliction Warlock)

Players using any of these powers can go ahead and craft them on either the Head, Hands or Shoulder slot, but will have to use the Feet slot for the Memory of Unity power. Feet isn’t used as often as the tier set slots, but as an inevitable choice for these specs if they want to have the best late-patch performance, it is still worth looking into the slot.

Thirdly, regarding the most popular slots for minmaxers.

In theory, all recommended powers cover the entire spectrum. In fact, when looking at the overall slot distribution without any filters, it is quite evenly balanced. However, with the tier sets allowing players to go for the slot with the highest stat gain (the only caveat being that one might want to reserve slots if a full tier set cannot be acquired early on), the slot popularity changes a bit.

Chest, Legs, Head and Shoulders reach anywhere between 11-14% share each, out of all slots. Also, I’m sorry superhero fans but Cape is dead – there is not a single recommended power that can’t be crafted on a better slot (be it an armor slot or an accessory slot like Neck or Finger). Same goes for Mail Wrist which had at least a few niche cases like Surging Shots for Marksmanship Hunter or the venthyr legendary for shamans – it too is a dead slot.

Lastly, here are the most popular slots when going by the “highest-stat only” category:

Cloth (Legs, Wrist, Head)
Leather (Shoulder, Chest, Head)
Mail (Head, Legs, Feet, Hands)
Plate (Chest, Legs, Shoulder)

Bonus Round: What if someone has the spare cash and wants to temporarily create their legendary on a non-tier set slot in order to have the maximum amount of flexibility during the gearing process? While I haven’t included this in the spreadsheet yet, here are a few points for crafters who want to cater to this playerbase:

Cape is back! Also Rings are popular. They each have 20% market share in this scenario. Necks not quite as much, but still respectable with 8%.
Cloth Wrist, Leather Wrist and Plate Waist are the alternatives for most armor type slots.
Mail Wrist doesn’t have a single usage in this scenario either.

Closing Comments: Next time I’ll just do a proper database solution. Working with google spreadsheet isn’t always ideal. Still, I hope this helps.

u/Tyrsenusprices on some ores and herbs may spike

Just my two cents, but it's looking like 9.2 might be a situation a little bit similar to osmenite & zin'anthid in 8.3 based on what I've seen on the PTR. I've been waiting to post this in case Blizzard decided to make last minute changes Zereth Mortis, but with a release candidate that seems unlikely now.

There's probably something I've overlooked here, let me know what it is in the comments. Very open to thoughts & discussion because this is partly relying on my memory of what happened back in BFA.

Background: Patch 8.2 - Nazjatar. Blizzard added osmenite (ore) & zin'anthid (herb). The two can be gathered only in Nazjatar. Osmenite was used to craft the best gear, zin'anthid for best raid consumables.

Then, patch 8.3 came: Blizzard revamped Uldum and Vale of Eternal Blossoms. The best Ny'alotha raid consumables in 8.3 still required zin'anthid, and new 8.3 crafted gear still required osmenite. A lot of it. So demand for zin'anthid and osmenite stayed high.

This wouldn't have been notable, except Blizzard did not add zin'anthid and osmentite nodes to Uldum and Vale. You could still only gather them in Nazjatar. But players were mostly "done" with Nazjatar by the time 8.3 released, or at least spending a lot less time there. A such, the typical player was gathering a lot less zin'anthid and osmenite in 8.3. That resulted in a lot less "casual" gathering (coming across a node while doing world quests, etc.), and more of the supply became controlled by farmers & goblins.

And as a result of the high demand and tightly controlled supply, zin'anthid and osmenite more than doubled in price when 8.3 released, and stayed that way for months.

You can check out the historical prices on Undermine Journal. You'll see the prices for these increased 2-3x with the launch of 8.3 in January 2020. It took about three months for zin'anthid to come back down to pre-8.3 prices, and about six months for osmenite.

Scroll down to regional daily summary and select "all:"

Now for 9.2.

The new 9.2 herb (First Flower) is used in one new alchemy consumable (healing potion). It's used on other optional gear reagents, but there are no other new consumables, only the healing pot. The best flasks and non-healing potions for Sepulcher will be the same as they were in 9.1. And they will still require a lot of widowbloom, marrowroot, vigil's torch, and rising glory.

The new 9.2 ore (Progenium) is used in the new crafter's marks, vestige, and optional gear reagents. The best crafted blacksmithing and jewelcrafting gear in 9.2 (including legendaries) still has the same base item materials, requiring oxxein ore, phaedrum ore, solenium ore, and sinvyr ore.

But on the PTR, the only ores/herbs that spawn in Zereth Mortis are elethium, laestrite, death blossom, nightshade, and the new 9.2 herb + ore. Zereth Mortis has zero nodes for widowbloom, marrowroot, vigil's torch, rising glory, and zero nodes for oxxein ore, phaedrum ore, solenium ore, or sinvyr ore. (What I'll call the covenant herbs & ores.) These nodes still only exist in the "original" four covenant zones (Bastion, Maldraxxus, Ardenweald, and Revendreth).

Which seems similar to the situation with zin'anthid and osmenite in 8.3. The mats will still be in high demand, but can only be gathered from zones that players will be spending a lot less time in. Resulting in less casual gathering of these materials, and fewer players controlling the supply.

9.2 and 8.3 have some differences though: we can now collect mats from mission tables and soulbind traits. That didn't exist in BFA.

How frequently the average player visits their mission table will have some impact on supply. Zereth Mortis has an anima reservoir unlike Korthia did (until 9.1.5). One less reason for the average player to visit their sanctum = fewer sanctum visits = fewer mission table visits. (Obviously goblins will still be visiting it a lot.) Soulbind traits will still allow some "gathering" in Zereth Mortis.

So we have other ways to "gather" these mats, but it may not change supply a ton overall, or at least who's going to be controlling most of it. Knowing that, prices of these covenant herbs & ores may not quite double in price like zin'anthid and osmenite, but prices will probably stay higher for longer than other mats.

Isn't this more like Akunda's bite etc in 8.3 than zin'anthid?

Akunda's bite, storm silver ore, etc. were still used in 8.3. Like zin'anthid & osmenite, they could not be gathered in Uldum or Vale. However, 8.3 recipes required a lot more zin'anthid and osmenite ore than the others. 9.2 recipes like Shadowghast Ingots and Spectral Flask of Power still require a lot of the covenant herbs & ores. Again, prices might not double, but for covenant mats & herbs I expect them to stay high for a while.

Korthia didn't have nodes for the covenant herbs & ores either, why will 9.2 be different?

A combination of:

There seems to be much more to do in Zereth Mortis than in Korthia = average player spends more in ZM = less time spent in the four covenant zones = less casual gathering of covenant herbs and ores.
I think it's safe to say the average player is more "done" with the four covenant zones than they were when 9.1 launched seven months ago. Fewer things left to do in covenant zones = less time spent in the covenant zones = less casual gathering of covenant herbs and ores.
The aforementioned anima reservoir in ZM, which gives less reason to visit the sanctum & covenant zones.

Less casual gathering = supply for the covenant herbs & ores will be more tightly controlled by goblins and farmers = higher prices.

TLDR:

There are four herbs and four ores that can ONLY be gathered in the original four covenant zones. They cannot be gathered in Zereth Mortis:
Marrowroot, Widowbloom, Vigil's Torch, Rising Glory
Oxxein Ore, Phaedrum Ore, Sinvyr Ore, Solenium Ore

But these herbs & ores will still be in high demand in 9.2 for flasks, shadowghast ingots, essences, legendaries, etc.

Since most players will be spending a lot less time in the four covenant zones, farmers/goblins will likely control more of the supply for these mats, causing prices to increase significantly and probably stay high longer than other mats.

This situation looks a bit like zin'anthid and osmenite, which were used in 8.3 recipes but could not be gathered in 8.3. zones. Prices more than doubled and stayed high for 3-6 months after the patch released.

Prices for these mats might not double, but right now might be the cheapest they may be for a while.

5 Beginner Gold Maker Tips by PenguinPenguin

Diversify.

Do not be afraid to use your gold.

TSM has a steep learning curve, but is worth it.

Learn to craft & restock.

It's not just all about Legendaries

Cross Server Economiesu/Woorahcomparing server prices and purchasing power

TLDR: This stuff might be a bit too advanced or niche for some, but with TSM custom prices, you can measure the general price of goods on your servers relative to other servers, which may be useful for cross-realm flippers, people transferring characters or pet traders. It's also interesting to use this data to see how population impacts on server specific prices and I analyse this below - so I thought I’d share in case some people find it interesting or useful.

Not all WoW servers are created equal, we all know that. They vary in terms of activity levels, raid progress, population, and in terms of the price and volume of goods available. In economics there is a concept known as “the big mac index”, which seeks to compare the “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) between currencies, and we can think in the same way in terms of servers. Answering questions like how far my 1mil gold might stretch on one server vs another, or which servers should I target for generally buying cheap pets (or selling them for a profit).

As someone who does a lot of cross-realm trading of pets and flipping on multiple servers, translating this kind of analysis to Wow servers is very interesting to me. I have long used data generated by both TSM and The Undermine Journal as a means to compare prices server to server, but my analysis gas typically been static, just a snapshot based on data taken on a particular day, so I wanted to see if I could replicate the process in game using TSM to create a more dynamic solution based on the latest TSM data.

The solution I came up with is based on the dbmarket of “basket of goods” of the most popular trading goods when compared to the dbregionmarket average. So for example my basked contained just Elethium ore, which has a server dbmarket of 70g and a dbregionmarketavg of 100g, this would give value of 70 out of 100 for that particular server. In my testing I have expanded the basket of goods to include around 50 of the top selling trade goods and consumables (not just Elethium ore) then averaged them to give a more comprehensive view of general price behaviours versus region averages.

I exported TSM regional price data from the TSM appdata LUA file and imported it into Excel (with a bit of cleanup) to come up with the list of goods to include in my “basket”, and then chose 50 or so trade goods and consumables based on their daily overall sales (dbregionmarketavg * dbregionsoldperday), and filtered out a few with sale rates below 8% or so.

The same can of course be done for any auctionable items you’re interested in - for example I’ve done a similar analysis to create a battlepet "basket of goods" which can be used to easily see whether the pets on the server I'm on are generally or more expensive than the region average.

So, how does your server compare? Well hopefully it’s included THIS analysis – which looks at the correlation between prices and population on the EU realms I’m active on (populations taken from raider.io). You’ll see the correlation is pretty strong on EU servers as whole from this analysis, but with some interesting out-liers.

And how can I replicate this?

In TSM go to Settings > Custom Sources and create a custom source, I named mine “basket”
Add a string based on the following syntax, where A is the itemid of the 1st item, B is the item ID of the 2nd item, and so on: (avg((dbmarket(item:A)/dbregionmarketavg(item:A)),(dbmarket(item:B)/dbregionmarketavg(item:B)))*100g
In TSM go to Settings > Tooltip Settings and scroll down to enable your new Custom Source in the Tooltip.
Volia! When you mouse over an item, you can now see how cheap or expensive your realm is relative to others. It should now look something similar to this– Values below 100g mean that your server is (on average) cheaper than regional prices for the basket of goods in your custom price, above 100g mean it is more expensive. See an example here.

The full string I used is here if you want to replicate mine.

N.b. if you want to do the same, but compare pet prices instead, I recommend adding at least 50 pets to your “basket” to have a good sample, and the syntax changes slightly, you need to add p:PETID, rather than item:ITEMID in your string.

Kaychack Further Reading/r/woweconomyDiscord Server

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