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PTR
10.2.7
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10.2.6
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Math Question
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Post by
291364
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
Post by
eevee
First remenber: Ticks of explosive shot can proc hunting party.
If CRIT=crit chance and PROC=hunting party proc chance (ie. 0.2*hunting party talent points), then on each event/tick there is a CRIT*PROC chance of replenishment being triggered. That means that on each event/tick, there is a (1 - CRIT*PROC) that replenishment is not triggered. For replenishment not to be triggered at all during the 11 events, there is a (1-CRIT*PROC)^11 chance of that happening. That means that there is a 1-(1-CRIT*PROC)^11 chance that at least 1 of the 11 events will trigger replenishment.,
http://liennaslog.blogspot.com/2009/01/all-you-didnt-want-to-know-about.html
Edit: You are not using arcane shot right?
Post by
291364
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Post by
139482
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
Post by
291364
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
Post by
eevee
Thanks for your answer, although it wasn't what i was asking, i at least learned that ticks of explosive shot (i guess the ticks can crit then?) can proc hunting party too
Yes explosive shot crits can proc hunting party
About Eevee's answer though, either he didnt understand my question, or he failed at answering it.
I knew how to calculate with (proc chance)^number of attemps but that doesnt give the % uptime at all, just the chance that it wont proc after a certain number of attemps
I am pretty sure that it gives us the uptime:
Lets look at a time
t
. The chance that hunting party is up at that time is:
isUp(t) = 1-(1-CRIT*PROC)^x
Where 'x' is the number of explosive shot (and ticks) and steady shot made the last 15 sec (hunting party duration).
Edit: I will reply later today
Post by
139482
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Post by
291364
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Post by
139482
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Post by
Zalambar
Uptime (also called Availability) in probability is a far more complex thing than throwing a coin several times and calculating the probability that you never got "heads". That's what his formula gives.
That is true. It should therefore be fairly clear to you that the result depends on, at the very least, the number of attacks capable of being critical hits made during the time you want to calculate uptime over. Since we have no idea what that number will be for your hunter friend the answers given in this thread are really the best anyone can hope to do without more information.
Do you often assign something like "solve 1-(1-c*p)^(t/s + t/(r*k)) when p=0.4" and expect anyone to give you a numerical answer?
Post by
eevee
It is not.
His Up(t) doesnt even depend on t.
Yes that is my point. Hunting Party being up at the time
t
is not dependent on the time.
Uptime (also called Availability) in probability is a far more complex thing than throwing a coin several times and calculating the probability that you never got "heads". That's what his formula gives.
I am not throwing coins, just calculating.
Edit: Also to note. The
hunter spreadsheet
uses the same method. This will be my last reply here: believe my calculations or not
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