Time for Blizz to come clean about character "Luck"?

发布者 Maurvyn

Allow me to preface by saying I work in statistics; I am fully aware of concepts like confirmation bias, illusory correlation, and primacy effect. Also please note the my data is anecdotal, I do not have records to prove any of it.

I have been playing since 2007. My wife and I play as a team, and do 80-90% of the game together, side-by-side in the study.
We noticed early on that one of my toons was particularly lucky (call him M), and that one of hers was particularly unlucky (K). Both toons were hunters, both spacegoats, created at almost the same minute.
K was mine/JC; M was skin/LW.
If there was a rare drop, M found it. If the drop rate was supposed to be one in three, M found it first try, K had to farm twelve to find one. M used to get skin up 极地毛皮 about one time in five. K almost never mined up any gems, they all had to come from prospecting.
M would almost always win a loot roll over K (naturally I would trade the item to her if possible ;) ).
M used to routinely find BoE blues while out questing. K was thus decked out in blues early on.
Flying around Northrend, and later, Cata, Silver Dragons would seem to spawn on top of M. M actually found his 迷时始祖幼龙 by tab targeting while out farming leather. Cata was released before K could tame her 逐日.
(She actually did happen to find him a few months before Cata dropped, but another hunter dropped in and killed it while she was attempting to tame. Truly abhorrent behavior. She found him again months later while farming mats)
The Oracles egg was nothing but frustration for K. After two years of weekly eggs, she never got the 绿色始祖幼龙的缰绳.
M found his in egg #3. And proceeded to delete seven more over the course of two years.
This trend continued in this manner until I realm-hopped M to join our son's guild. The luck appeared to dry up with the race change.

My point is that the run of luck I had on M, and the run of bad lack seen on K, were outliers, and not something that is easily passed off on RNG. The pattern of "luck" (both good and bad) was too consistent, and had an apparent relation to that specific character. We have eight pairs of toons we've leveled through the years, and we have never seen this pattern repeat, though one her other alts (S) seems to have at least some of M's type of luck, and my new monk (M2) that we are currently leveling, appears to have some of K's.

The best way I can explain this is that there really is a background "luck" stat, this is generated at character creation and never changes. This luck is normally distributed throughout the population, and so there are naturally those toons at both ends of normal.
It would make sense that it could affect a mechanic like a loot table; though how it could possibly effect spawn timers for mobs seems far-fetched.
I have no idea why it would be there, unless the devs wanted to make some toons feel particularly awesome. And the reason it remains undisclosed is to prevent people from just recreating characters trying to get one that is "lucky".

More likely I am just grasping at straws for an explanation to a false pattern amid autocorrelation.
Or attempting to shift some wife aggro on to the devs. :D

Thoughts? Has anyone else seen a similar pattern, or had a toon that was gifted with Luck's favor?

发布者 Adamsm

发布者 lonewolfe31705

More likely I am just grasping at straws for an explanation to a false pattern amid autocorrelation.
Yup.

The RNG Goddess is a fickle mistress and she favours some with luck over others...in other words, just shrug and keep on going.

QFT. I have had guildies get the Rare spawn items on first chance while it took me 498 Kills on Yorik Sharpeye to get the Mr. Smite item. But when it comes to battle pets, I seem to find a blue quality within 2-3 pet battles.

Never really thought about it. But it has been 4 weeks since I last received loot from a raid and I use all my coins each week.

发布者 WizzardlordUK

In my experience it evens out, i tend to lose 90% of rolls against another person and get nothing for a few weeks, then suddenly get 3 items in 1 raid. but i certainly get what you mean i seem to have luckier toons than others. My hunter for instance got spirit beasts, terrorpene ect with barely any camping as such i used to leave him on spawn spots, and login to it every few hours but that was probably down to the time i played (allways spawned around 4-6am when not much competition about) a coule of years ago i was farming 死亡军马的缰绳 on my mage many loots later nothing, decided to take my death knight for the 1st time ever in and ofc it drops 1st time.

发布者 TickleMeThrall

发布者 Maurvyn

I raid casually, "LFR", and I would like to not get repeat drops. I think a more "intelligent" RNG should be used. If 1-12 is a plate chest piece I'm currently wearing and RNG rolls 9, it will reroll until 1-12 doesn't show up.

I don't disagree that getting repeated drops is frustrating. At least you would think that they could tune the RNG so that it would attempt to drop an item that could be utilized by someone in the party, if available on the loot table.
I can't count the number of times I've seen runs where nothing drops that anyone can even use. It feels like such a waste of effort for nobody to get anything at all. (other than Valor, I suppose). If you have a plate tank, mail heals, and mail and leather dps: the 5 bosses shouldn't drop 5 pieces of cloth.

On the other hand, the pessimist in me knows that if everyone was able to get gear without months of constant grinding, Blizz would be under greater pressure to release more content, faster. That fifth drop of the same chest piece you've been wearing since August, when all you need is the head that just dropped for someone else, is what keeps you coming back to try again.

"Hope. A little hope is effective. A lot can be dangerous. The spark is fine; as long as it's contained."

;)

发布者 lankybrit

发布者 cephadex

RNG is RNG.

You can have a 1 in 3000 chance of getting something and get it.

All you're seeing is the apparent clumping of luck because the sample size is too small.

Just like for me, Burdens drop off mobs on Timeless Isle when I'm playing toons that don't need them, but never on the toons that do need them :)

but you can send those to your other toons...

EDIT: sorry, for some reason I read that as 'tokens' and not 'burdens.' I know you can't send burdens to your other toons.

发布者 lonewolfe31705

No you can't. Burdens are BOP not BOA...at least they were last time i got one.

发布者 Adamsm

Yup Burdens were made BoP a few updates ago.

发布者 cephadex

No you can't. Burdens are BOP not BOA...at least they were last time i got one.

yeah sorry, for some reason I read that as 'tokens,' I know burdens are soulbound.

发布者 508201

This post was from a user who has deleted their account.

发布者 cephadex

incidentally, how come you kept buying Oracle eggs after you got your drake?

发布者 lonewolfe31705

Never really thought about it. But it has been 4 weeks since I last received loot from a raid and I use all my coins each week.

And just like that the luck changes around. Got my Heroic Warforged BIS neck last night . It is so pretty...

发布者 Maurvyn

All you're seeing is the apparent clumping of luck because the sample size is too small.
I admit that it seems small, but playing that one toon for five years, combined with the experience of leveling eight other toons, it definitely has the appearance of an outlier.
But as you say .....
RNG is RNG.

That was part of my intent of the OP was to poll the community to see of anyone else had had similar experiences. Determination if it was really an outlier, or perhaps each account gets one "Lucky Bastard" in the mix...

incidentally, how come you kept buying Oracle eggs after you got your drake?

For the other drops: Tickbirds, whelps, etc.
Remember this was back in the day when each toon needed it's own menagerie of pets. The whelps used to fetch a pretty good price, the birds less so, but they still sold. For the effort required in flying to SB once a week, the egg was a pretty good investment. Especially when you were already nearby running the WG raids on a weekly basis.

Ah, memories...

发布者 503532

This post was from a user who has deleted their account.

发布者 235245

This post was from a user who has deleted their account.

发布者 Maurvyn

Being a DM for over two decades now, I can assert there are some people who just seem to have the Eye of Luck (picture the Eye of Sauron but with a four leaf clover and rainbows instead of flames) on them most the time.
One individual in particular could roll a nat 20 about two times out if five. It was ridiculous, and as DM I had to actually make adjustments to account for this guy.
However, he was also an accomplished legerdemain. The guy could walk right by you and end up with your wallet, keys, and watch, and you would have no idea they went missing. He would come back to you five minutes later and hand it all back, with a giant grin and a truckload of chagrin for his victim. He was very talented, and that probably played into his 'luck' with the dice.
I think he may still have some of my dice. Bastard.

I remember in high school, this one teacher that always put his foot in his mouth, and thought he knew everything. This one day he told the class that according to the law of averages if you roll a six sided die six times you will get a 6 one of the six rolls. I was "rolling" as his count went above six, and you could see him getting annoyed as his little theory was proven wrong. But if you roll a thousand times and write down your outcomes, it will begin to average 1/6 the more you roll.

The "law" of averages is a tempting misconception. People like to believe that eventually everything evens out. Not so in reality. It would be entirely possible for him to roll that dice one hundred times and never hit a 6. (as evidenced by every monopoly game I have ever played :/ )

RNG = RNG
Funny. I have said this exact thing before.
Thank you for your anecdotal confirmation though. The RNG definitely has the appearance of concentration (your Eye of Luck, as I referenced above), in that runs of luck seem to happen at certain times with certain characters.

After all folks, Statistics means never having to say you're certain.
And never tell a statistician he's average; that's just mean.

Also, seems applicable here

发布者 235245

This post was from a user who has deleted their account.

发布者 metal01a

So once we are able to buy a level 90 ...
Why not buy some luck? Something that increases your odds in the RNG game!

Time for Blizz to come clean about character "Luck"?

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